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The resignation of Angela Rayer and the rather themeless reshuffle that has followed leaves Labour teetering on the brink of a full blown crisis this weekend, of that there is no doubt.
In my view there are two ways it could go over the coming weeks.
First, it is not impossible that Keir Starmer’s party might just get the reality check it needs and sharpen up its messaging, as well as its attacks on Nigel Farage, because it is now so clear that it has underperformed disastrously thus far, and that the threat from Reform has suddenly become very real. It could, as part of this positive fresh start, find a way both to punt new ideas (perhaps, say, on the environment and green agenda) while shouting louder about its successes to date (why not go big on cutting NHS waiting lists?).
Or, alternatively, nothing much may change, the chaos could deepen, the party split could widen, and the manoeuverings would then begin. One huge danger that looms is the upcoming contest for the deputy leadership. Will this now become an opportunity for the party at large to show its discontent? Will the party high command - the centre - try to rig it somehow? If so all hell could break loose.
It is not impossible that we could be in a fast accelerating meltdown by the party conference in Liverpool in a few weeks time. Certainly it does not look good for Labour.
Much of this current situation can be laid at Starmer’s door. In his first year in No 10 and with a huge majority he has managed to create a void of interesting new ideas and prioritise a defensive tactical mindset that has simply not worked. Where there have been successes such as over the NHS they have not been shouted from the rooftops or built upon. Nigel Farage of all people - the man who helped deliver the colossal failure that is Brexit - is filling that void with extraordinary ease, all attack to Labour’s defence, despite the disingenuity of most of his positions. Most striking of all is how Farage, one the originators of Brexit, now benefits from Labour’s void of thinking by saying that Brexit is a giant failure! In this weird inverted world it is Starmer - who warned that Brexit would be a disaster - who is running a Downing Street that feels it has to say that Brexit is broadly speaking going fine because it fears Reform. Work that one out.
I make this point not because I am suggesting that Brexit is the issue of the moment. While there are urgent matters to address about our trade relationship with the EU, it is obviously not.
But because it shows how Farage is a life force who has somehow been allowed to come back even stronger despite landing us with an economy 4% smaller in GDP terms and a lesser country on the world stage through Brexit. Starmer by contrast looks politically lifeless, devoid of themes or purpose and utterly without effective counters to Farage. One reason that this may get worse for Labour - and is dangerous for the country - is that there is nothing in Starmer’s reshuffle to suggest new ideas or strategies. What does moving David Lammy out of the Foreign Office and Yvette Cooper into it achieve? It is literally a reshuffle with no discernible political theme.
Another is that unless he changes his spots quick Starmer’s rather grey defensiveness will be on show throughout the conference season, as Farage peddles his instinctive narrow populism to great effect. Labour needs now to start taking Farage on on subjects that matter - how he will run the economy, tax, the Europe and the environment among them, and to stop recoiling into its shell for fear of being attacked by Reform.
Starmer badly needs to create some arguments with Reform that he can win, and come out for some causes he can show he is on the right side of. So far he has somehow managed to turn success at the last election into failure because he is not a great politician, while Farage has turned failure to his advantage, because he is a very effective and dangerous one.
The threat to our national interest is clear and it is huge. This country needs a right-wing Trumpian Prime Minister like a hole in the head.
Toby Helm is the former Political Editor of the Observer
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