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Good evening,

There’s no such thing as free lunch, and now, the bill is coming due.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) introduces ([link removed]) stringent fiscal consequences for states with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payment error rates of 6% or higher.

In federal Fiscal Year 2023-24, North Carolina's SNAP error rate was over 10%. If the OBBB's rules were in effect at that time, the state would have faced a 15% penalty, costing taxpayers approximately $450 million.

SNAP was originally established to subsidize the purchase of groceries for low-income Americans.

The program is administered at the state level, yet the federal government fully funds the cost to provide benefits. So states bear no financial loss from poorly administering the program.

The problem with SNAP payments intensified during COVID-19, when federal waivers relaxed verification requirements and paused quality-control reviews.

State agencies became accustomed to approving cases quickly, with minimal documentation, and failed to reinstate rigorous oversight when the pandemic ended. This allowed ineligible households to enroll and fueled a surge in payment errors once reviews resumed.

As SNAP benefit levels are expected to continue rising, the potential penalties will also increase, creating an ongoing fiscal risk of last-minute tax hikes or emergency spending cuts.

Unless oversight improves, and payment error rates fall below the OBBB threshold, NC taxpayers will be left footing a hundred-million-dollar bill.

North Carolina should invest in technology, such as artificial intelligence and predictive analytics, to help caseworkers identify errors and high-risk cases.

The choice is simple. Either fix the system now or pay the price later.

You can read more about North Carolina’s budget and taxes here ([link removed]) , here ([link removed]) , and here ([link removed]) .

Esse quam videri,

Donald Bryson
CEO
John Locke Foundation

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More from Locke
1) 🏙️🏙️🏙️ Congressional district maps should not cleave cities asunder ([link removed])
* A Utah judge has added a new wrinkle to the ongoing mid-decade redistricting fight, overturning a Republican-drawn congressional map that split Salt Lake County
+ A congressional map that keeps Salt Lake City whole would likely change the congressional delegation from 4-0 to 3-1 Republican
+ Democrats in Oregon similarly split Portland into 4 districts to advantage their party
+ No matter the legality of carving up those cities in those states, it is a better policy to keep political communities that cities represent together, when possible
* The current North Carolina map keeps cities largely intact
+ The congressional map used in 2022 split Charlotte down the middle
+ This map resulted in a 7-7 partisan split with only 2 competitive districts
+ The map was seen as a way to protect Democrats from a projected "Republican wave" election
+ The General Assembly's subsequent 2024 map did a better job of keeping North Carolina's major cities largely intact
* The John Locke Foundation issued a report ([link removed]) in 2023 on limiting gerrymandering in North Carolina, which advocated for 3 core principles:
+ Maintain current state constitutional criteria, including equal population, contiguity, and minimizing county splits
+ Avoid partisan and racial data when drawing maps, and don’t consider incumbents' addresses to avoid “double-bunking”
+ Focus on local community ties, rather than statewide partisan balances or creating more competitive districts, to solidify districts’ relationship with their local communities
* It is not too early to enact redistricting reform before the next reapportionment in 2031

You can get the full picture here ([link removed]) .

2) 🤱🤱🤱 Good news about motherhood ([link removed])
* The Institute for Family Studies has just released a report that finds:
+ Married mothers are happier than unmarried women or women without children
+ Nearly twice as many married mothers say they are “very happy” as unmarried women without children

You can read the full report here ([link removed]) .

3) 🗳️🗳️🗳️ Progress is being made in repairing deficient voter registrations ([link removed])
* The North Carolina State Board of Elections (SBE) is working to correct voter registrations that lack a required North Carolina driver's license/DMV ID number or a social security number in the state's database
+ Officials have identified over 100,000 such registrations since July 17, and have already corrected over 20,000 of those
+ The federal Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) and state law require voter registrations to include a "HAVA number" (either a driver's license number or the last four digits of a Social Security number)
o These numbers are used by election officials to cross-check voter lists with other databases to improve accuracy
+ The SBE has now begun the 2nd phase of the process, contacting over 80,000 registrants by mail to obtain their missing HAVA numbers
* Who are those with missing HAVA numbers?
+ A report analyzed the Registration Repair Project (RRP) list and found that RRP registrants were less likely to provide other personal information, like age, and were more likely to register as unaffiliated
+ Reluctance to share personal data (and a mistaken belief that HAVA numbers were optional) likely explains why RRP registrants have missing information
* What happens next?
+ The county boards and the SBE will continue to reach out to affected registrants in the coming months
+ Voters on the "registration repair list" must vote via a provisional ballot and provide their HAVA numbers
+ After Election Day, the county board of elections will determine if the required identification was provided for the provisional ballot to be counted
o Most voters will be able to easily provide their driver's license number since voter ID is required in North Carolina
* While it may take a while, the registration repair process will help make our voter rolls more secure, without jeopardizing anyone’s right to vote

You can read more here ([link removed]) .


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