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Undercover investigation into illicit tobacco sales in Leeds
This Times article reports on the illicit tobacco trade in the Harehills area of Leeds. The journalists joined an undercover investigation which found that illicit tobacco and vapes were available in several local shops.
The article refers to a KPMG report commissioned by Philip Morris International (PMI) that claims the UK’s black market has grown from 17 per cent in 2020 to 25 per cent in 2024, at a cost of £3.15 billion to the Treasury. The article highlights that HMRC holds different figures but does not include these estimates.
Source: The Times, 31 August 2025
Editorial note: This article appears to rely almost exclusively on tobacco industry-linked sources and evidence. The undercover operation the journalists were following appears to have been led by Will O’Reilly, a consultant working with Philip Morris. Leaked industry documents from 2013 list O’Reilly’s consultancy as a media messenger in the PMI’s campaign against plain packaging. This Times article follows another similar PMI-led investigation in Birmingham covered by GB News, suggesting a broader corporate strategy to shape the narrative around illicit trade.
The article also cites the PMI-funded reports produced by KPMG as evidence that the illicit trade in the UK is growing. These reports have been criticised by independent experts for consistently overestimating levels of illicit cigarettes, being over reliant on unvalidated tobacco industry information, being insufficiently transparent and misrepresenting both the findings and pre-existing data. A review of tobacco industry data on illicit tobacco trade published in Tobacco Control concluded that: "The primary purpose of tobacco industry-funded data on [the illicit tobacco trade] seems to be to serve as a platform for the industry’s lobbying and public relations strategies."
While the article acknowledges the existence of HMRC’s data on the illicit market, the data itself is not included in the write up. Contrary to industry claims, the illicit market in the UK is not out of control and has declined significantly over the last two decades. According to HMRC, between 2000-01 and 2023-24, the number of illicit cigarettes consumed in the UK declined by almost 90% – amounting to 13 billion fewer illicit cigarettes consumed per year – alongside a 68% decline in illicit HRT.
See also: HMRC - Tax gaps: Excise (including alcohol, tobacco and oils). June 2025 | ASH blog: From smuggling to spin: how tobacco giants hijacked the illicit trade debate | Illicit Tobacco Partnership. Illicit tobacco PR guide.
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EU: Harm reduction organisations warn EU tobacco tax plan could undermine public health gains
A coalition of international public health experts and harm reduction organisations has written to the European Commission President, raising concerns about proposed EU tax reforms that would significantly increase levies on nicotine products, including e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches. The reforms, part of a broader revision of the Tobacco Excise Directive, aim to generate €11.2 billion annually to support the EU's long-term budget.
The letter argues that smoke-free nicotine alternatives pose substantially lower health risks than traditional cigarettes and calls for regulatory approaches that distinguish between combustible and non-combustible products to support harm reduction. It cites Sweden, the UK, and New Zealand as examples where such alternatives are said to have contributed to reductions in smoking rates.
One of the signatories, Professor Konstantinos Farsalinos, Vice-President of the International Association on Smoking Control and Harm Reduction (SCOHRE), states that tax increases on cigarettes can fuel illicit markets, and expresses concern about applying the same tax levels to lower-risk products. He states that tobacco reduction can help to increase government revenues and that increasing taxes on these products would create a black market and negatively impact public health.
Source: EU Reporter, 1 September 2025
Editorial note: Two of the founding members of SCOHRE have received funding from the tobacco industry and two others are affiliated to organisations linked to the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World (FSFW), which was fully funded by PMI until 2023. FSFW continues to operate on the remaining PMI funds, has since been rebranded to Global Action to End Smoking (GAES).
See also: EU Reporter - Public health: Letter of experts to the president of the European Commission calling against high taxation of tobacco alternatives
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US: National anti-smoking ad campaign to end amid fears of rising health costs and reduced quit support
A long-running US anti-smoking campaign, led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and known for its powerful real-life stories and promotion of the quitline 1-800-QUIT-NOW, is set to end in September after 13 years. The "Tips From Former Smokers" initiative has been credited with prompting millions of quit attempts and saving billions in healthcare costs. However, recent cuts to CDC programmes under the Trump administration, and a broader restructuring of public health funding, have left the campaign without renewed support.
Experts and former officials warn that the closure could severely weaken tobacco control efforts, particularly in states reliant on federal funding. They also fear that quitline services and access to nicotine replacement therapies may be reduced or eliminated altogether. While the administration argues the reorganisation will improve efficiency and local decision-making, public health advocates see it as a significant rollback of decades of progress in smoking cessation.
Source: CBS News, 26 August 2025
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Australia: Tobacco tax rise sparks debate over black market and enforcement strategy
From 1 September, cigarette prices in Australia will increase by nearly 7% due to scheduled excise adjustments, pushing the cost of a 20-pack close to $30. While intended to deter smoking, critics including economist Chris Richardson and New South Wales Premier Chris Minns argue that continual tax hikes have fuelled a growing illicit tobacco trade, which now accounts for an estimated 20% of sales. They point to declining government revenue and rising crime as signs the strategy is backfiring.
However, public health experts including University of Sydney professor Becky Freeman and federal health officials believe the focus should remain on enforcement. Several states have strengthened measures to tackle illegal sales, and the federal government has invested in compliance efforts, maintaining that high prices remain a key tool for reducing smoking rates.
Source: The Guardian, 30 August 2025
Editorial note: According to the World Bank and the WHO, tobacco taxes are the single most effective measure for reducing smoking prevalence. The evidence shows that tax increases do not have a significant impact on the illicit market, provided that they are accompanied by a comprehensive enforcement strategy and supply chain controls. The World Bank states that: “Contrary to tobacco industry arguments, raising tobacco taxes is not the primary cause of illicit trade. Accumulated evidence indicates that the illicit cigarette market is relatively larger in countries with low taxes and prices, while relatively smaller in countries with higher cigarette taxes and prices. Non-price factors such as governance status, weak regulatory framework, and the availability of informal distribution networks appear to be far more important factors.”
This is clear when we look at the UK. The number of illicit cigarettes consumed in the UK has fallen by almost 90% since the turn of the century, while the price of an average pack of cigarettes has more than tripled. This has been achieved through an effective UK enforcement strategy, alongside measures that have significantly reduced smoking rates – cutting demand for both legal and illegal tobacco.
For more information:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/680311548773329872/executive-summary
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ASH Daily News is a digest of published news on smoking-related topics. ASH is not responsible for the content of external websites. ASH does not necessarily endorse the material contained in this bulletin.
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