New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
No. 104 - August 2025
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Photo Credit: Ryan DeBerardinis/Shutterstock
A Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
We’re almost through the “dog days of summer,” but we’ve stayed busy all summer long at the Comptroller’s Office – keeping a sharp eye on the City’s budget and the broader economy, and working hard to protect the retirement security of hundreds of thousands of New York City workers and retirees: our teachers, cops, firefighters, sanitation workers, public hospital nurses, accountants, school crossing guards, and so many more.
That’s why, along with the trustees of the City’s five retirement systems, I was proud to announce [[link removed]] last week strong 10.3% pension returns [[link removed]] for Fiscal Year 2024-2025. These returns exceeded our targets for the third consecutive fiscal year, translating to $2.2 billion in savings for the City that we’ll be able to invest in schools, housing, and other critical social services that benefit New Yorkers.
These strong returns are a testament to our office’s talented Bureau of Asset Management [[link removed]] team. By taking a disciplined, long-term approach, we’ve been able to assess and mitigate portfolio risk. As a result, the funds ended FY25 with a value of $295 billion in assets – now the third largest public pension fund in the U.S.
Despite the attacks by Donald Trump and red-state treasurers on “ESG” – taking environmental, social, and governance risks seriously – we aren’t backing down from what we just consider responsible investing. We’ve achieved those good numbers while divesting fossil fuels (whose stocks were down this year), insisting on good workplace management practices, and making economically-targeted investments in the NYC region – like buying the mortgages on 35,000 units of rent-stabilized housing that were put at risk when Signature Bank failed, which has worked to preserve those units and delivered great returns for our retirees.
For our Spotlight [[link removed]] this month, we take a look at Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its implications on New York City’s economy and workforce. I know you’ve been hearing about AI, a lot lately – maybe you’re even wondering if the Comptroller’s economic monthly newsletters and spotlights are written by AI (answer: not yet). We dig into data from Anthropic on which kinds of jobs/tasks are utilizing AI – and therefore may be more vulnerable to replacement – and compare that to areas where job postings have been shrinking or growing.
Finally, this week is the annual meeting of the Financial Control Board, which was established 50 years ago this year in the wake of the city’s fiscal crisis. The frameworks adopted in the aftermath of that crisis – including balanced budgets and multi-year planning – are the foundation that have allowed the City to navigate economic downturns, national policy shifts, and global recessions with stability and integrity.
Unfortunately, some of the critical lessons learned 50 years ago are not reflected in the Adams Administration’s FY 2026 Adopted Budget. We offer warnings, along with recommendations for how we can strengthen the practices of sound, responsible budgeting, in our report to the FCB [[link removed]] .
That’s what we mean by watching the numbers.
[[link removed]]
Brad Lander
Table of Contents
* The U.S. Economy [[link removed]]
* New York City Economy [[link removed]]
* City Finances [[link removed]]
Highlights
* The July U.S. jobs report pointed to a far weaker labor market than previously reported. Payroll employment rose by a meager 73K in July and, with steep downward revisions to May and June, the average gain over the three months was just 35K. Unemployment edged up and labor force participation slipped, and the employment-population ratio fell to a 3½-year low.


* While local data are not yet available for July, NYC's unemployment rate continued to trend down in June, and the employment-population ratio held steady at a record high.


* Regional consumer and business confidence have recovered somewhat but remain at fairly weak levels as of July.


* The housing rental market has remained tight, though the inventory of available rentals has edged up in recent months; the sales market has been mostly flat.


* The city's office market remains slack, aside from top-tier (5-star) properties in Manhattan. Nearly 3 million square feet of 5-star space is due to be added to the market by the end of 2025, but demolitions and conversions are expected to gradually reduce the volume of Class B & C space over the next few years.


* In a hopeful sign, New York City office attendance is estimated to have exceeded comparable pre-pandemic levels in July for the first time.


* The standard transit fare is set to rise roughly 3.5% in 2026. Since the early 1960s, fares have risen considerably faster than overall inflation; but in the last decade, they have not kept pace with inflation.
* The number of asylum-seekers in City shelters continued to trend down modestly in July; excluding asylum seekers, the shelter population was little changed.
* The City's pension funds achieved a combined investment return of 10.3% in FY 2025, well over the 7% return assumed in the budget, allowing the City to lower its pension contributions by $2.18 billion through FY 2030.
View the August Newsletter [[link removed]]
Spotlight
How is the AI Revolution Affecting New York City?
This month's spotlight explores the current use of generative AI by workers across occupations and its potential impacts on NYC's workforce.
Read More [[link removed]]
In Case You Missed It
Over the past month, the Comptroller's Office released the following announcement on the state of NYC's economy and finances.
* Comments on NYC's Fiscal Year 2026 Adopted Budget [[link removed]]
* NYC Pension Funds' Returns for Fiscal Year 2025 [[link removed]]
* NYC's Over-Reliance on Extension Contracts [[link removed]]
* NYC Cash Balance Projection [[link removed]]
* Fiscal Note: Office-to-Residential Conversion in NYC [[link removed]]
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Office of the New York City Comptroller
Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
United States
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