Claims by Trump and Democrats About Consumer Prices Don’t Tell the Whole Story

In mid-July, President Donald Trump and top Democrats offered their accounting of the Trump administration’s impact so far on inflation and prices.
 
“The economy is roaring, business confidence is soaring, incomes are up, prices are down and inflation is dead,” Trump said at a July 14 luncheon.
 
Meanwhile, Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters, “Costs aren’t going down in the United States of America, costs are going up.”

FactCheck.org writers Alan Jaffe and Saranac Hale Spencer looked at the most recent data and spoke to experts about the claims from both sides. They found that the White House and Democratic leaders cherry-pick data, while sometimes wrongly taking credit for lower prices or falsely casting blame for rising costs.

Based on the Consumer Price Index, the inflation rate was 2.7% for the 12 months ending in June, and rose 0.8% from January to June -- contrary to Trump’s claim that “inflation is dead.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI for groceries rose from January to June by 0.6%. “Grocery prices have been accelerating,” Ernie Tedeschi, of Yale University’s Budget Lab, told Alan. But “a little bit of grocery inflation is typical, and it’s not clear that the president has much to do with recent grocery price dynamics,” he said.

The average price for a dozen grade A white eggs paid by consumers fell 23.8% from January to June, according to BLS data -- contradicting Jeffries’ suggestion that all “costs are going up.”

“Most of the decline in egg prices this year was due to bird flu season ending,” explained Jeremy Horpedahl, an associate professor of economics at the University of Central Arkansas. 

The price of ground beef hit a record high in June, increasing 11.1% since January, according to BLS data. That economic news prompted Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan to lay the blame on Trump. But like egg prices, factors that have caused the rise in beef prices – including drought conditions that reduced the cattle herd in the Plains and Midwest – began years ago.

As for prices at the pump, the average retail price of gasoline has stayed largely the same since Trump took office, though the cost now is relatively low for summer.

The reasons for the rise or fall of prices usually involve factors beyond the policies implemented in the first six months of the current administration, experts told Alan and Sara, and predictions of success or failure of those policies, including tariffs, are yet to be determined.

For more, read the full story: “Are Prices Up or Down? Parsing Misleading Claims by Trump and Democrats.”