July 20, 2025

Marc’s breakdown goes beyond the headlines to reveal what the Epstein files mean for the future of the GOP. As a voting rights litigator and elections expert, Marc brings exclusive insight you won’t find in mainstream coverage — and members get it first, whenever news breaks. Upgrade today.

We are now in the second week of Donald Trump’s self-inflicted crisis over the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein Files. On Saturday, Trump took to Truth Social to express his anger in a gibberish-filled post. Now, the president who usually leads conspiracy theories has found himself in the debacle of quelling them.

Trump has, by any measure, lost control of his narrative and — at least for now — large portions of his base. While releasing the Epstein Files is popular across the electorate, it is especially important to the voters Trump and Republicans have come to rely on and whom Democrats have in recent elections struggled to attract.

If one lesson of 2024 was the need to communicate with voters who take their cues from culture, the Epstein Files offer a real-time example of how that is playing out. The very influencers and podcasters credited with nudging their audiences toward Trump are now among the most alienated over his handling of this matter.

It is worth pointing out, however, that in some sense, none of this really matters for Trump. He will not be on the ballot in 2026 or — despite Steve Bannon’s fevered dreams — ever again. 

The most likely casualties of Trump’s bizarre behavior will be Republicans standing for reelection in 2026. Even as Congress continues to enact deeply unpopular legislation on the promise that Trump will save them in 2026, it now seems certain that the Epstein Files will threaten their electoral prospects.

The both-sides coverage of the Epstein files is dangerous and should not be sanitized. Democracy Docket will never pull punches when it comes to reporting the facts on democracy and voting rights.

Even in less fraught times, we have seen the weakness of Trump’s hold on his base when he is not directly on the ballot. The results from 2018 and 2022 serve as a reminder of how poorly Republicans fared in recent midterms. In both elections, Trump attracted and endorsed the worst candidates while offering no increase in voter turnout or enthusiasm. 

Now, with his base of voters upset about Epstein and Democrats feeling the momentum, it seems inevitable the House and Senate GOP will again bear the electoral brunt of Trump's lies and idiocy.

It is easy to forget that, even before Trump, we’ve seen this before. In 2006, Democrats swept the midterm elections in dramatic fashion, in no small part due to a scandal involving a Republican member of Congress and a House page. That scandal engulfed House leadership: what did they know, did they cover it up and were high school pages protected? 

The result? Democrats gained five Senate seats and 31 House seats.

The Epstein Files are different on a few fronts. Republicans will no doubt point out that this scandal is taking place more than a full year before the election, while the House page scandal was its proximity to Election Day. They will also note that the page scandal involved a Republican congressman, while this centers on Trump and the actions of his administration.

That is just wishful thinking by John Thune, Mike Johnson and their members. 

First, in 2006, Republicans in Congress were able to take steps to limit the damage. They could express moral outrage and promise reforms. Most importantly, they were not captive to an irrational narcissist in the White House whose only concern is his own well-being.

Already, we have witnessed the impotence of Congressional Republicans in addressing this scandal. As they call for the files to be released, they are casting votes for the exact opposite. Despite their claims to the contrary, it seems clear that the overwhelming majority of House and Senate Republicans will end up voting to protect Trump and the secrets contained in those files. It’s clear where their loyalties lie — and it’s not with the American people.

Second, the Republican base was not invested in the political future of the Republican congressman from Florida — Mark Foley — who was at the heart of the 2006 scandal. While people were repulsed by the accusations and angry at the way Republicans handled the aftermath, the ideology of the Bush-era GOP was not wrapped up in the fallout of the scandal. 

Finally, the biggest difference is Trump himself. He is selfish and does not care about any of the Republicans serving in Congress. Even as they have become more obsequious — perhaps because of it — he holds them in contempt. We know — and they know — that Trump will do whatever he deems is in his best interest and will sacrifice any or all of them without a second thought.

When it comes to GOP congressional politics, I am often reminded of a lesson I learned from my Yiddish-speaking grandmother. 

“Tatala,” she would say, “learn manners because when you grow up, you don’t want to be a schlemiel — a person who, at a nice dinner party, spills the soup.”

“Ok,” I would respond.

“But even more important,” she was quick to add “never be the schlimazel — the chronically unlucky person onto whose lap the soup is spilled.” 

When it comes to congressional politics, Trump may be a vulgar schlemiel, but congressional Republicans are always the schlimazels.

This is Marc’s breakdown of Trump’s latest crisis and what it means for 2026, which is exclusive to members. Don’t miss out next time — become a member today.