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From Ceasefire to the Table: Will Iran and the U.S. Negotiate Again?
| From | Iran Unfiltered from NIAC <[email protected]> |
| Subject | From Ceasefire to the Table: Will Iran and the U.S. Negotiate Again? |
| Date | June 24, 2025 9:13 PM |
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Week of June 23, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
* From Ceasefire to the Table: Will Iran and the U.S. Negotiate Again [[link removed]]
* After the Fordow Strike: A Dangerous Escalation with Uncertain Gains [[link removed]]
From Ceasefire to the Table: Will Iran and the U.S. Negotiate Again? [[link removed]]
On June 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel would begin within hours, stating on his social media platform, Truth Social:
“Congratulations to all! As agreed by both Israel and Iran, a full ceasefire will commence in approximately six hours, leading to a de-escalation and complete end to hostilities within 12 hours.”
Trump stressed that both parties are expected to act “peacefully and respectfully” during each phase and promised to congratulate both sides for their “patience.”
The announcement came while military operations were still ongoing. Just prior to Trump’s post, Israel issued evacuation warnings for District 7 in Tehran, followed by airstrikes in densely populated areas around Sepah Square and Eshratabad. Iran responded with warnings and declared retaliatory missile strikes starting early Tuesday morning.
CNN’s Tehran correspondent reported conflicting messages from Iranian officials— some denied receiving a ceasefire proposal, while others, including Amwaj Media, indicated Iran had accepted the terms.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X:
“If the Israeli regime halts its illegal aggression by 4:00 a.m. Tehran time, we will not continue retaliatory actions.”
However, he added that no formal ceasefire agreement had been signed, and that Iran’s military operations would continue until the last moment. Iranian state media later clarified that “4:00 a.m.” referred to London time, equal to 7:30 a.m. in Tehran, aligning with Trump’s ceasefire timeline.
Despite the declared ceasefire, hostilities continued. Israeli authorities claimed Iran launched ballistic missiles shortly before and after the scheduled ceasefire. One missile hit Beersheba, killing at least four civilians and injuring several more. In response, Israeli fighter jets struck radar installations near Tehran.
Iran’s military command denied firing any missiles during the ceasefire window, raising questions over who violated the truce first. There was significant confusion around the exact start time of the ceasefire. Trump stated it would begin six hours after his announcement, with full implementation in 12 hours. Araghchi cited 4:00 a.m. Tehran time, later clarified as 4:00 a.m. GMT (7:30 a.m. Tehran time). The lack of coordination and clarity may have contributed to early violations.
President Trump reacted harshly toward what he deemed ceasefire violations, appearing to put most of the blame on Israel. He said in response to a question that Iran violated the ceasefire, but that “Israel violated it too. Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I’ve never seen before…I’m not happy with Israel.” He continued, “I’m not happy with them, I’m not happy with Iran, either. But I’m really unhappy if Israel’s going out this morning because of one rocket, that didn’t land that was shot, perhaps by mistake…I’m not happy about that.” He concluded, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing, do you understand that?”
The human toll of the war has been devastating. Iran’s Ministry of Health reported 610 deaths from Israeli strikes, with 95% dying under rubble. Evin Prison was also struck, killing and injuring visitors, prisoners’ families, and judiciary staff. Mohammadreza Sedighi Saber, a senior nuclear official, was killed in Gilan province in a targeted strike. In a separate attack in Astaneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, nine people were killed and 33 injured, including women and children, according to the Gilan Governor’s Office.
Markets reacted swiftly. Global oil prices fell over 8.5%, with Brent crude dropping to $70.50 per barrel. Analysts, including Robin Brooks of Brookings, interpreted the drop as a sign that Iran was not escalating further—pointing to the fact that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remained unaffected, despite its global strategic importance.
In Washington, the White House confirmed that President Trump asked the Emir of Qatar to mediate, while Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary Marco Rubio, Ambassador Steve Witkoff, and other U.S. officials coordinated with Qatar and Iran—especially after Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. base at Al Udeid in Qatar.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted Trump’s ceasefire proposal, stating that Israel had achieved its strategic goals and warning that any violation would be met with severe retaliation. His office thanked Trump and the U.S. for their support in neutralizing what it called Iran’s dual threat: missile capacity and nuclear potential.
Later on June 24, Trump announced what seems to be a major policy shift, writing:
“China can now continue buying oil from Iran. Hopefully, they’ll buy a lot from the U.S. too.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, in a phone call with Mohammed Bin Salman, reportedly stated:
“We are ready to resolve the issues between Iran and the United States within the framework of international norms and laws. We have never sought anything beyond our rightful entitlements, and we welcome any support from our friendly and brotherly nations along this path.”
Despite the formal announcements, clashes, contradictory timelines, and lack of clear coordination have left the ceasefire fragile. The road ahead depends on whether both sides can commit to restraint, transparency, and genuine diplomacy.
After the Fordow Strike: A Dangerous Escalation with Uncertain Gains [[link removed]]
Published on June 23, 2025
In a stunning and controversial military escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday, June 21 that American forces had carried out what he called a “highly successful” airstrike on three of Iran’s major nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The strike, which followed a series of Israeli attacks across Iran over the prior nine days, marks a dangerous turning point in the regional conflict and raises serious concerns over the legality, effectiveness, and human cost of the U.S. strikes.
Trump claimed on Truth Social that Fordow had been “destroyed” by a full payload of bunker-busting bombs, adding that all U.S. aircraft had safely exited Iranian airspace . He described the operation as a historic moment for the U.S., Israel, and the world, declaring: “Now is the time for peace.” But what followed was far from peace.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes have had devastating impacts on civilians, especially in Iran . According to independent sources, Iranian media, and emergency officials, the death toll has now surpassed 1,000, the vast majority of them civilians. These include women, children, elderly citizens, and medical personnel who were targeted or became collateral damage in missile strikes and aerial bombardments across multiple cities.
The bombing of Fordow, while allegedly aimed at underground centrifuges, reportedly sent shockwaves through the nearby city of Qom, destroying homes and clinics. In addition to the U.S. attack on nuclear facilities, Israeli fighter jets have also targeted key military and internal security installations, including Evin Prison, which houses hundreds of political prisoners and dual nationals, Basij paramilitary bases in Tehran and Karaj, and IRGC intelligence headquarters, including the Seyyed-al-Shohada Division and Sarallah Base, responsible for Tehran’s internal security.
On the strikes on Evin prison on June 23, footage confirmed that sections of Evin Prison were damaged, sparking panic among detainees . Israeli officials defended the strike, claiming these were centers of repression, but human rights groups called the attacks “reckless” and “indiscriminate,” endangering the lives of prisoners with no due process.
According to Mohammad Habibi, a prominent civil rights figure, the Israeli strike on Evin Prison resulted in the deaths of inmates along with several prison guards and conscripted soldiers . Members of the transgender community and those imprisoned for financial offenses were among the prisoners who were killed and injured in the strike. The surviving detainees were reportedly transferred to Fashafouyeh (Greater Tehran Prison), raising concerns about overcrowding and the safety of vulnerable populations.
The attacks on Basij and IRGC bases also resulted in heavy casualties . A high number of security personnel—particularly conscripted soldiers—were reported killed. In Iran, all male citizens are required by law to serve two years in the military starting at age 18. These young men are not volunteers but are drafted into service, often placed in sensitive roles at IRGC or Basij bases. The death of these conscripts—many barely out of high school—has sparked national grief and anger, including among families who have little support to the Iranian government.
Despite President Trump’s bold declaration that “Fordow is gone,” leading non-governmental military analysts have cast doubt on the extent of the damage . Experts including Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute and David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security analyzed satellite imagery and concluded that many core elements of the site appear intact. Satellite photos reveal six large craters near the site—three believed to target the ventilation system, and three aimed at the centrifuge hall. However, Lewis noted: “If this is all there is, then it was a deeply incomplete operation. We cannot even confirm whether Iran’s 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium were hit or moved.” Iranian trucks were seen in satellite images before the attack, possibly sealing entrances and moving materials, suggesting Tehran may have anticipated the strike and preserved its assets. This sets the stage for Iran to potentially move to enrich its stockpile to weapons grade, out of site of international inspectors.
Iran’s response came on Monday, June 23 under the name “Operation Basharat al-Fath” (Good News of Victory) . The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had launched a powerful and coordinated missile attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the region. According to Iranian armed forces, the operation was carried out under the direction of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the central command base of Khatam al-Anbiya. Multiple explosions were reported in Doha and Lusail, with visible projectiles lighting up the sky. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that the number of missiles used matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Iran’s nuclear facilities—14 in total. The statement emphasized that the targeted base was located far from urban centers or civilian infrastructure, implying an effort to avoid civilian casualties.
Qatar condemned the attack as a “blatant violation of national sovereignty” and reserved the right to respond under international law . However, Qatari defense officials confirmed that all incoming Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted and that the base had been evacuated before the attack, resulting in no casualties. The New York Times reported that Iran had notified Qatari officials in advance, signaling its intent to avoid escalation with Doha while still striking a symbolic blow against U.S. forces.
Inside Iran, Israel’s attacks have triggered an emotional and political earthquake across the ideological spectrum . Many civil society organizations, including teacher unions, labor groups, and political prisoners, have issued statements condemning the attacks while emphasizing the need to defend Iran’s territorial integrity—regardless of the regime. The Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Unions stated: “This military aggression by Israel is a blatant violation of international law and a threat to the lives of innocent civilians. It must be condemned by all nations.” Former political prisoner Alireza Rajaei, who lost an eye and part of his face due to cancer developed in prison, warned in a televised message: “This is a national war. The greatest threat to Iran’s existence since the wars with Russia. America and Europe deceived Iran in nuclear talks and enabled Israel’s aggression. Do not fall for the propaganda that this is merely a regime war. It is a war on the nation, and we must stand united against invasion and treachery.”
In stark contrast, some opposition groups outside Iran are either supporting the Israeli strike or attempting to exploit the chaos to instigate a militarized regime change . The Monarchist factions, the MKO, Jaish al-Adl, and Pejak have each issued statements reflecting divergent motives. Jaish al-Adl described the war as unrelated to national interests, calling it “a war of the regime” and labeled Iran’s actions as historical crimes against Baluchis and other minorities. They welcomed the strikes as an opportunity to overthrow the regime. Pejak (Kurdish Free Life Party) issued a statement urging solidarity between Iranian Kurds and Azeris, calling for ethnic unity and the formation of grassroots democratic councils, while warning against regime manipulation and foreign provocation. They framed the war as a historical moment for democratic self-determination.
Among the more vocal figures in exile was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former Crown Prince of Iran, who held a press conference in Paris and accused Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his “destructive and criminal cult” of dragging Iran into economic and military collapse . “This war was started by Ali Khamenei,” he declared, blaming him for looting national infrastructure, wasting public wealth on a nuclear weapons program, and dismantling Iran’s internal security while hijacking national sovereignty. “The regime has failed and is on the edge of collapse,” he stated, calling this moment the beginning of a “new era for Iran.” He further claimed that credible reports indicate senior regime figures, including Khamenei’s own family, are preparing to flee the country, and that Khamenei himself is directing the war from a bunker while using civilians as human shields. “The democracy we seek,” he added, “will be based on territorial integrity, individual freedom, and the separation of religion from politics.”
Meanwhile, inside Iran, the judiciary executed Mohammad Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh, a 26-year-old political prisoner, on charges of “intelligence cooperation” with Israe l. He is the third person executed on similar charges since the war began. According to the official judiciary news agency Mizan, Shayesteh was described as the head of a cyber team allegedly affiliated with Mossad and was accused of knowingly working with what the authorities called a “terrorist-intelligence service.” He was also labeled a virtual “collaborator” with Iran International, an opposition news network that later denied any connection with him. Reports earlier confirmed that Shayesteh’s death sentence had been upheld by Iran’s Supreme Court, despite appeals. He had originally been sentenced to death by Judge Salavati in Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Court. After the verdict, he was transferred from Ward 4 of Evin Prison to Ghezel Hesar Prison’s high-security wing, reserved for murder convicts. Requests for his return to the political ward were denied. Human rights organizations previously reported that his confession was obtained under torture and that his trial was conducted without due process. According to the Iran Human Rights organization, Judge Kuhkamarei affirmed the verdict “without consideration of the defense.”
Though President Trump celebrated Saturday’s attack as a deterrent to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, many experts argue that the Fordow strike may backfire . The Iranian nuclear program—despite decades of sabotage and assassination—has proven resilient. U.S. intelligence itself admits uncertainty about whether Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was affected. Moreover, Iran’s civilian casualties, the legal ambiguity of the strike, and the lack of a clear strategic endpoint have drawn international criticism. Russia condemned the attack as unprovoked. China has called for de-escalation, and the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog warned of “grave consequences” if such attacks continue. Even within the U.S., questions are mounting: Was this operation a show of strength or a hasty gamble that may push the region into a wider war?
Iran now faces a critical crossroads: whether to retaliate further, risking full-scale war, or hold fire and potentially negotiate amid attacks and potentially, a position of comparable weakness . The Iranian government has not ruled out returning to the negotiation table—but only on its own terms, and only after ensuring that its civilian and national dignity are defended. Meanwhile, families in both Iran and Israel mourn their dead, and millions in the region brace for what comes next.
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Week of June 23, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
* From Ceasefire to the Table: Will Iran and the U.S. Negotiate Again [[link removed]]
* After the Fordow Strike: A Dangerous Escalation with Uncertain Gains [[link removed]]
From Ceasefire to the Table: Will Iran and the U.S. Negotiate Again? [[link removed]]
On June 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel would begin within hours, stating on his social media platform, Truth Social:
“Congratulations to all! As agreed by both Israel and Iran, a full ceasefire will commence in approximately six hours, leading to a de-escalation and complete end to hostilities within 12 hours.”
Trump stressed that both parties are expected to act “peacefully and respectfully” during each phase and promised to congratulate both sides for their “patience.”
The announcement came while military operations were still ongoing. Just prior to Trump’s post, Israel issued evacuation warnings for District 7 in Tehran, followed by airstrikes in densely populated areas around Sepah Square and Eshratabad. Iran responded with warnings and declared retaliatory missile strikes starting early Tuesday morning.
CNN’s Tehran correspondent reported conflicting messages from Iranian officials— some denied receiving a ceasefire proposal, while others, including Amwaj Media, indicated Iran had accepted the terms.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X:
“If the Israeli regime halts its illegal aggression by 4:00 a.m. Tehran time, we will not continue retaliatory actions.”
However, he added that no formal ceasefire agreement had been signed, and that Iran’s military operations would continue until the last moment. Iranian state media later clarified that “4:00 a.m.” referred to London time, equal to 7:30 a.m. in Tehran, aligning with Trump’s ceasefire timeline.
Despite the declared ceasefire, hostilities continued. Israeli authorities claimed Iran launched ballistic missiles shortly before and after the scheduled ceasefire. One missile hit Beersheba, killing at least four civilians and injuring several more. In response, Israeli fighter jets struck radar installations near Tehran.
Iran’s military command denied firing any missiles during the ceasefire window, raising questions over who violated the truce first. There was significant confusion around the exact start time of the ceasefire. Trump stated it would begin six hours after his announcement, with full implementation in 12 hours. Araghchi cited 4:00 a.m. Tehran time, later clarified as 4:00 a.m. GMT (7:30 a.m. Tehran time). The lack of coordination and clarity may have contributed to early violations.
President Trump reacted harshly toward what he deemed ceasefire violations, appearing to put most of the blame on Israel. He said in response to a question that Iran violated the ceasefire, but that “Israel violated it too. Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I’ve never seen before…I’m not happy with Israel.” He continued, “I’m not happy with them, I’m not happy with Iran, either. But I’m really unhappy if Israel’s going out this morning because of one rocket, that didn’t land that was shot, perhaps by mistake…I’m not happy about that.” He concluded, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing, do you understand that?”
The human toll of the war has been devastating. Iran’s Ministry of Health reported 610 deaths from Israeli strikes, with 95% dying under rubble. Evin Prison was also struck, killing and injuring visitors, prisoners’ families, and judiciary staff. Mohammadreza Sedighi Saber, a senior nuclear official, was killed in Gilan province in a targeted strike. In a separate attack in Astaneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, nine people were killed and 33 injured, including women and children, according to the Gilan Governor’s Office.
Markets reacted swiftly. Global oil prices fell over 8.5%, with Brent crude dropping to $70.50 per barrel. Analysts, including Robin Brooks of Brookings, interpreted the drop as a sign that Iran was not escalating further—pointing to the fact that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remained unaffected, despite its global strategic importance.
In Washington, the White House confirmed that President Trump asked the Emir of Qatar to mediate, while Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary Marco Rubio, Ambassador Steve Witkoff, and other U.S. officials coordinated with Qatar and Iran—especially after Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. base at Al Udeid in Qatar.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted Trump’s ceasefire proposal, stating that Israel had achieved its strategic goals and warning that any violation would be met with severe retaliation. His office thanked Trump and the U.S. for their support in neutralizing what it called Iran’s dual threat: missile capacity and nuclear potential.
Later on June 24, Trump announced what seems to be a major policy shift, writing:
“China can now continue buying oil from Iran. Hopefully, they’ll buy a lot from the U.S. too.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, in a phone call with Mohammed Bin Salman, reportedly stated:
“We are ready to resolve the issues between Iran and the United States within the framework of international norms and laws. We have never sought anything beyond our rightful entitlements, and we welcome any support from our friendly and brotherly nations along this path.”
Despite the formal announcements, clashes, contradictory timelines, and lack of clear coordination have left the ceasefire fragile. The road ahead depends on whether both sides can commit to restraint, transparency, and genuine diplomacy.
After the Fordow Strike: A Dangerous Escalation with Uncertain Gains [[link removed]]
Published on June 23, 2025
In a stunning and controversial military escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday, June 21 that American forces had carried out what he called a “highly successful” airstrike on three of Iran’s major nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The strike, which followed a series of Israeli attacks across Iran over the prior nine days, marks a dangerous turning point in the regional conflict and raises serious concerns over the legality, effectiveness, and human cost of the U.S. strikes.
Trump claimed on Truth Social that Fordow had been “destroyed” by a full payload of bunker-busting bombs, adding that all U.S. aircraft had safely exited Iranian airspace . He described the operation as a historic moment for the U.S., Israel, and the world, declaring: “Now is the time for peace.” But what followed was far from peace.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes have had devastating impacts on civilians, especially in Iran . According to independent sources, Iranian media, and emergency officials, the death toll has now surpassed 1,000, the vast majority of them civilians. These include women, children, elderly citizens, and medical personnel who were targeted or became collateral damage in missile strikes and aerial bombardments across multiple cities.
The bombing of Fordow, while allegedly aimed at underground centrifuges, reportedly sent shockwaves through the nearby city of Qom, destroying homes and clinics. In addition to the U.S. attack on nuclear facilities, Israeli fighter jets have also targeted key military and internal security installations, including Evin Prison, which houses hundreds of political prisoners and dual nationals, Basij paramilitary bases in Tehran and Karaj, and IRGC intelligence headquarters, including the Seyyed-al-Shohada Division and Sarallah Base, responsible for Tehran’s internal security.
On the strikes on Evin prison on June 23, footage confirmed that sections of Evin Prison were damaged, sparking panic among detainees . Israeli officials defended the strike, claiming these were centers of repression, but human rights groups called the attacks “reckless” and “indiscriminate,” endangering the lives of prisoners with no due process.
According to Mohammad Habibi, a prominent civil rights figure, the Israeli strike on Evin Prison resulted in the deaths of inmates along with several prison guards and conscripted soldiers . Members of the transgender community and those imprisoned for financial offenses were among the prisoners who were killed and injured in the strike. The surviving detainees were reportedly transferred to Fashafouyeh (Greater Tehran Prison), raising concerns about overcrowding and the safety of vulnerable populations.
The attacks on Basij and IRGC bases also resulted in heavy casualties . A high number of security personnel—particularly conscripted soldiers—were reported killed. In Iran, all male citizens are required by law to serve two years in the military starting at age 18. These young men are not volunteers but are drafted into service, often placed in sensitive roles at IRGC or Basij bases. The death of these conscripts—many barely out of high school—has sparked national grief and anger, including among families who have little support to the Iranian government.
Despite President Trump’s bold declaration that “Fordow is gone,” leading non-governmental military analysts have cast doubt on the extent of the damage . Experts including Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute and David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security analyzed satellite imagery and concluded that many core elements of the site appear intact. Satellite photos reveal six large craters near the site—three believed to target the ventilation system, and three aimed at the centrifuge hall. However, Lewis noted: “If this is all there is, then it was a deeply incomplete operation. We cannot even confirm whether Iran’s 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium were hit or moved.” Iranian trucks were seen in satellite images before the attack, possibly sealing entrances and moving materials, suggesting Tehran may have anticipated the strike and preserved its assets. This sets the stage for Iran to potentially move to enrich its stockpile to weapons grade, out of site of international inspectors.
Iran’s response came on Monday, June 23 under the name “Operation Basharat al-Fath” (Good News of Victory) . The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had launched a powerful and coordinated missile attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the region. According to Iranian armed forces, the operation was carried out under the direction of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the central command base of Khatam al-Anbiya. Multiple explosions were reported in Doha and Lusail, with visible projectiles lighting up the sky. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that the number of missiles used matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Iran’s nuclear facilities—14 in total. The statement emphasized that the targeted base was located far from urban centers or civilian infrastructure, implying an effort to avoid civilian casualties.
Qatar condemned the attack as a “blatant violation of national sovereignty” and reserved the right to respond under international law . However, Qatari defense officials confirmed that all incoming Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted and that the base had been evacuated before the attack, resulting in no casualties. The New York Times reported that Iran had notified Qatari officials in advance, signaling its intent to avoid escalation with Doha while still striking a symbolic blow against U.S. forces.
Inside Iran, Israel’s attacks have triggered an emotional and political earthquake across the ideological spectrum . Many civil society organizations, including teacher unions, labor groups, and political prisoners, have issued statements condemning the attacks while emphasizing the need to defend Iran’s territorial integrity—regardless of the regime. The Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Unions stated: “This military aggression by Israel is a blatant violation of international law and a threat to the lives of innocent civilians. It must be condemned by all nations.” Former political prisoner Alireza Rajaei, who lost an eye and part of his face due to cancer developed in prison, warned in a televised message: “This is a national war. The greatest threat to Iran’s existence since the wars with Russia. America and Europe deceived Iran in nuclear talks and enabled Israel’s aggression. Do not fall for the propaganda that this is merely a regime war. It is a war on the nation, and we must stand united against invasion and treachery.”
In stark contrast, some opposition groups outside Iran are either supporting the Israeli strike or attempting to exploit the chaos to instigate a militarized regime change . The Monarchist factions, the MKO, Jaish al-Adl, and Pejak have each issued statements reflecting divergent motives. Jaish al-Adl described the war as unrelated to national interests, calling it “a war of the regime” and labeled Iran’s actions as historical crimes against Baluchis and other minorities. They welcomed the strikes as an opportunity to overthrow the regime. Pejak (Kurdish Free Life Party) issued a statement urging solidarity between Iranian Kurds and Azeris, calling for ethnic unity and the formation of grassroots democratic councils, while warning against regime manipulation and foreign provocation. They framed the war as a historical moment for democratic self-determination.
Among the more vocal figures in exile was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former Crown Prince of Iran, who held a press conference in Paris and accused Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his “destructive and criminal cult” of dragging Iran into economic and military collapse . “This war was started by Ali Khamenei,” he declared, blaming him for looting national infrastructure, wasting public wealth on a nuclear weapons program, and dismantling Iran’s internal security while hijacking national sovereignty. “The regime has failed and is on the edge of collapse,” he stated, calling this moment the beginning of a “new era for Iran.” He further claimed that credible reports indicate senior regime figures, including Khamenei’s own family, are preparing to flee the country, and that Khamenei himself is directing the war from a bunker while using civilians as human shields. “The democracy we seek,” he added, “will be based on territorial integrity, individual freedom, and the separation of religion from politics.”
Meanwhile, inside Iran, the judiciary executed Mohammad Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh, a 26-year-old political prisoner, on charges of “intelligence cooperation” with Israe l. He is the third person executed on similar charges since the war began. According to the official judiciary news agency Mizan, Shayesteh was described as the head of a cyber team allegedly affiliated with Mossad and was accused of knowingly working with what the authorities called a “terrorist-intelligence service.” He was also labeled a virtual “collaborator” with Iran International, an opposition news network that later denied any connection with him. Reports earlier confirmed that Shayesteh’s death sentence had been upheld by Iran’s Supreme Court, despite appeals. He had originally been sentenced to death by Judge Salavati in Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Court. After the verdict, he was transferred from Ward 4 of Evin Prison to Ghezel Hesar Prison’s high-security wing, reserved for murder convicts. Requests for his return to the political ward were denied. Human rights organizations previously reported that his confession was obtained under torture and that his trial was conducted without due process. According to the Iran Human Rights organization, Judge Kuhkamarei affirmed the verdict “without consideration of the defense.”
Though President Trump celebrated Saturday’s attack as a deterrent to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, many experts argue that the Fordow strike may backfire . The Iranian nuclear program—despite decades of sabotage and assassination—has proven resilient. U.S. intelligence itself admits uncertainty about whether Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was affected. Moreover, Iran’s civilian casualties, the legal ambiguity of the strike, and the lack of a clear strategic endpoint have drawn international criticism. Russia condemned the attack as unprovoked. China has called for de-escalation, and the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog warned of “grave consequences” if such attacks continue. Even within the U.S., questions are mounting: Was this operation a show of strength or a hasty gamble that may push the region into a wider war?
Iran now faces a critical crossroads: whether to retaliate further, risking full-scale war, or hold fire and potentially negotiate amid attacks and potentially, a position of comparable weakness . The Iranian government has not ruled out returning to the negotiation table—but only on its own terms, and only after ensuring that its civilian and national dignity are defended. Meanwhile, families in both Iran and Israel mourn their dead, and millions in the region brace for what comes next.
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