Dear John,

From the UK government’s spending review, falling GDP and more talk of increasing NATO contributions; to days of violent unrest in Northern Ireland, outrage over the handcuffing of a US senator amid ICE raids in California - ahead of yet more protests in the US this weekend - and a major Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites threatening to turn into full-blown war, it’s been, well, quite a week for planet Earth.

That’s before we get to Thursday’s devastating Air India plane crash, rescue efforts, and investigation, with our thoughts with all those affected by the disaster, and their loved ones.

Here to (try to) make sense of it all is your Weekend Wire…

Dangerous world latest

In the early hours of Friday morning, Israel launched strikes against Iran, targeting the country’s nuclear sites and reportedly killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leader Hossein Salami, other military leaders and nuclear scientists. Iran launched its own drone strikes in response, which Israeli media later reported had been intercepted. The attack appears to be the most significant on Iran itself since its conflict with Iraq in the 1980s Iran-Iraq war - and has since been described by Iran in a letter to the UN as a “declaration of war”.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has “urged all parties to step back” and called for “restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy”. But Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke of “severe punishment” for Israel, and  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on Friday morning ‘Operation Rising Lion’ was intended to roll back Iran’s threat to “Israel’s very survival”, had targeted work on the “Iranian bomb” and would “continue for as many days as it takes”.

AUKward

The major escalation comes as the Trump White House announced a review of the AUKUS defence pact between the UK, US and Australia agreed under Joe Biden - which is creating a new nuclear-powered submarine fleet -  in what a US official called ensuring it is “aligned with the President’s America First agenda”. While in Europe, NATO chief Mark Rutte warned Putin could attack by 2030, stressing: “We’re all on the eastern flank now.” He called for stonking increases in defence spending ahead of a high-stakes summit later this month, with allies expected to agree to a 5% of GDP target - with 3.5% purely military and the remainder defence-related - up from the current 2% goal.

Money, money, money…

On Wednesday, the Chancellor delivered her long-awaited spending review to MPs in the House of Commons, only for new stats to reveal the UK’s GDP had shrunk by 0.3%, less than 24 hours later. The slump in growth - and declining UK trade figures - was attributed to Donald Trump’s - let’s go with - ‘unconventional’ approach to international trade policy. 

But as our CEO Naomi Smith argued, including in the Mirror, independent economic analysis shows that by deepening ties with the EU across all industrial sectors, the UK would be shielded from the impact of Trump’s tariffs and benefit from “significant growth, across the whole country, meaning more money for public services, more jobs and higher wages”. 

‘I got bills, I gotta pay…’

Labour MPs were decidedly more cheerful as Reeves pumped money into the NHS, defence (well, wouldn’t you?) and affordable housing. While slightly less than happy faces on the Labour side included London mayor Sadiq Khan, who called it “disappointing” that the capital got no new cash for infrastructure and transport projects. It came after Reeves (mostly) U-turned on the government’s winter fuel policy, with 75% of pensioners in England and Wales now set to receive the payment at a projected cost of £1.25bn.

The Chancellor also insisted taxes would not need to go up, but experts at the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned she was only a “gnats whisker” away from having to raise them. While reports emerged on Thursday that council tax would have to go up to pay for a (limited) increase in police funding.

In a win this week for greater European collaboration, it was confirmed the UK and Gibraltar have reached a political agreement with the EU, addressing a key area of post-Brexit friction.

People and goods crossing the Gibraltar-Spain border will avoid having to undergo “onerous checks”, ministers said, as the agreement will establish a “fluid border”, while protecting Gibraltar’s sovereignty. 

And arrivals into Gibraltar airport will undergo dual border checks by Gibraltar and Spanish officials, and the UK will retain full operational autonomy of the UK's military facilities there.

Best for Britain’s policy director Tom Brufatto welcomed the news as “pragmatic”, highlighting it is “in much the same way that we have French border guards in St Pancras station”.

He added: “With so much still to advance following last month’s summit, we can be optimistic that this agreement removes an obstacle to greater EU-UK cooperation in other areas which can bring prices down for UK consumers and restore opportunities back to British citizens.” 

In, out, in, out…

Elsewhere, Nigel Farage welcomed (a chastened) Zia Yusuf back to the fold, as the former party chairman insisted last week’s row which culminated in his resignation via social media was merely a "storm in a teacup". Yusuf reportedly could also be set to stand in a future by-election for Reform, making him - if successful - the party’s sixth MP.

Political shapeshifter Farage - who is now promoting the re-opening of coal mines in Wales, in a multi-billion pound uncosted policy proposal described by one economist to the i paper as “such a non-starter it makes me angry” - also announced a new chairman of Reform UK. The former Brexit Party MEP, and ex-doctor turned ghost hunter (no seriously), David Bull.

When the going gets Tusk

Following last week's disappointing victory for far-right nationalist Nawrocki in the Polish Presidential election, Donald Tusk was feeling the pressure as he declared a no-confidence vote on his coalition government. 

But despite securing a (relatively)  narrow victory of 243 vs 210, Tusk admitted he faces a challenging two-and-a-half years until he seeks re-election. Constitutionally, the newly-elected President has veto power over any legislation that lacks three-fifths support in Poland’s Parliament. Tusk’s most ambitious reforms - such as improving abortion rights and ending judicial corruption - may now be near impossible to enact. But, with war on the doorstep, closer EU integration in reach, a divided parliament, and a booming economy, Polish politics is set to be fraught - with Tusk vowing to hold his opponents to account. One to watch closely…

Cringe Column 

This has been your Weekend Wire from Best for Britain. Keep your eyes out this weekend, assuming we’re all still here, for Sunday’s - suddenly even more urgent - G7 summit…

Have a good one.

Jessica Frank-Keyes

Senior Press Officer

Best for Britain