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Daily News Brief

June 12, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. plans to review a military pact with Australia and the United Kingdom (UK), as well as...

  • A Boeing passenger plane crash in India
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s openness to postponing tariff hikes
  • Poland’s confidence vote
 
 

Top of the Agenda

The United States is reviewing a nuclear submarine deal that forms the basis of the 2021 AUKUS security pact, a Pentagon spokesperson said. The multibillion dollar deal commits the United States and the UK to helping Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines in the 2030s and 2040s. The plan was pitched during the Joe Biden administration as a method of jointly deterring China, but a Trump administration official reportedly leading the review has voiced concerns that fulfilling U.S. AUKUS commitments could potentially diminish the size of the U.S.'s own submarine fleet.

 

The details.

 

  • The partnership would see the United States sell submarines to Australia starting in the 2030s and the UK jointly produce new submarines with Australia that would enter service in the early 2040s. 
  • U.S. defense official Elbridge Colby is leading the review, six unnamed sources told the Financial Times. Last year, he posted on social media that it “would be crazy” for the United States to have fewer attack submarines in the case of war with China.
  • Officials from both Australia and the UK voiced confidence in the deal yesterday. Last year, it survived a review by the UK. 

 

The context.

 

  •  Echoing their messaging to European allies, Trump administration officials have urged Australian officials to increase military spending. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called on Canberra in recent weeks to up its defense spending from 2 to 3.5 percent of GDP. In response, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese later said, “we’ll determine our defense policy.”
  • Albanese might meet with Trump at the Group of Seven (G7) summit that begins Saturday in Canada; UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will also attend. 
 
 

“There remain significant worries among Australia’s defense and political elites about what a second Trump term will mean for even such a steadfast ally. The Biden administration’s landmark AUKUS defense partnership, which Canberra now counts on as a major deterrent to Chinese actions in its region, could be in jeopardy, a major blow to U.S.-Australia ties and Australian defense…Trump, a man who usually has an opinion about everything, has never said anything about AUKUS, and the new president often does not see the immediate value of such deals, preferring to immediately rethink virtually every U.S. foreign commitment until he is satisfied with it on his terms.” 

—CFR Senior Fellow Joshua Kurlantzick, Asia Unbound

 

G7 and NATO Test European Leadership

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) meets with China's Premier Li Keqiang on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Singapore November 15, 2018. (Alexei Druzhinin/Reuters)

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

During upcoming summits, European leaders will have two opportunities to convince Trump about the importance of aiding Ukraine and ensuring European security, CFR Fellow Liana Fix writes in this Expert Brief. 

 
 

Across the Globe

U.S., China stances on trade. Washington plans to send trade partners letters over the next two weeks setting new tariff rates but would also be open to extending countries’ negotiating deadlines, Trump said yesterday. At present, higher U.S. tariffs for dozens of countries are due to take effect on July 9. Meanwhile, in the wake of Washington and Beijing’s commitment to overcome recent trade tensions, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that China’s new pause on rare earth export restrictions will be reevaluated after six months.

 

China to lift tariffs for Africa. Beijing plans to offer zero-tariff access to its markets for fifty-three African countries, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a letter yesterday. Eswatini is the only African country set to be excluded from the measure, due to its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. Beijing said the tariff relief will be official after a China-Africa economic partnership deal is signed.

 

Air India plane crash. India’s health minister said “many people” died after a London-bound flight from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad crashed shortly after takeoff today. The Boeing plane carried 242 passengers and crew; it hit the campus of a medical college. The planemaker reached a deal with the U.S. Justice Department last month to shield it from criminal responsibility in 2017 and 2018 crashes that killed 346 people.  

 

Poland’s Tusk survives vote. Pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk won a parliamentary confidence vote yesterday by 243 to 210. He called the election after nationalist Karol Nawrocki won the country’s presidential election earlier this month. Poland’s president has less power than the prime minister, but can block some of their agenda. Tusk said yesterday that the presidential election does not reduce “our responsibility, our duties, or the scope of our power.” 

 

Shift on Korean border. South Korea will stop broadcasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda across the demilitarized zone with North Korea as a measure to “build trust,” Seoul said. It had turned on the loudspeakers last year after a six-year hiatus. President-elect Lee Jae-myung is seeking more engagement with Pyongyang than former President Yoon Suk Yeol.

 

U.S. Mideast evacuations. The United States authorized the departure of diplomats from its embassy in Baghdad and the departure of military family members from the wider region amid concerns over tensions with Iran, unnamed U.S. officials told multiple news outlets. Israel has reportedly signaled its readiness to attack Iran, and Iran’s defense minister said yesterday that the country would respond to potential strikes by attacking U.S. bases in the region. The next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will occur this weekend, Oman’s foreign minister said today. 

 

Appeal for plastics pact. Ninety-five countries issued a joint call earlier this week to finalize a treaty restricting global plastics. Negotiations on the treaty are due to restart in two months in Geneva after a planned final round of talks last year was derailed by oil-producing countries such as Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. 


Fulbright board resigns. All board members of the U.S. government’s Fulbright program for international education exchange resigned yesterday, saying in a memo that the Trump administration’s interference in its scholarship approval process sought to undermine the program’s “mission and mandates.” The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.

 
 

U.S. Postwar Immigration Policy

An aerial view of the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, in Jacumba Hot Springs, California.

Go Nakamura/Reuters

Through the rise and fall of different quotas and border restrictions, immigration has been an important element of U.S. economic and cultural vitality since the country’s founding. Learn more with this timeline by CFR’s Diana Roy.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, the International Energy Agency begins a global conference on energy efficiency in Brussels.
  • Today, Hong Kong begins an auto expo.
  • Tomorrow, the UN Security Council holds consultations on the Middle East and Sudan.
 
 

The U.S. Role in Global Trade Policy History

A logo is pictured on the headquarters of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland, June 2, 2020.

Denis Balibouse/Reuters

The current U.S. position on World Trade Organization standards could not be in greater contrast to its leadership role at the founding of the institution, CFR Fellow Inu Manak writes for the Association of Women in International Trade.

 
 

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