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For the past year or two, there has been quite a bit of discussion about how inexpensive drones have been revolutionizing warfare in Ukraine. A “key effect,” notes [ [link removed] ] analyst Anatol Lieven, is that they “make it extremely difficult to create the local mass necessary for a decisive breakthrough.” He points out that “tanks cannot be brought up to the front line at all” and that “infantry can only be brought up in tiny packets.” Others [ [link removed] ] have come to [ [link removed] ] similar conclusions.
Although it is far too early to be certain, it is possible that this development will have considerable consequences not only for the stalemated war in Ukraine, but also for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. At the extreme, it can even be taken to suggest that the opposed invasion of one country by another may have become physically obsolete.
Any discussion of the issue must necessarily be speculative, however, because drone warfare in the Russo-Ukraine War remains an area that is still developing, and the same holds for counter-drone defenses. For example, if drone communications are jammed, drone operators can change frequencies or tether their drones to 10-mile-long fiber optic cables that circumvent jamming. And we are only in the infancy of applying artificial intelligence to either using or countering drones—AI might lead to drones that can operate autonomously. And both Ukrainian and Russian forces are increasingly applying thermal technology so their drones can operate at night. There have also been tests [ [link removed] ] of weapons that may be able to fry drone electronics.
Some argue [ [link removed] ], however, that tanks will still likely remain viable [ [link removed] ] in the drone age. And others suggest that eventually drones might become entirely preoccupied with taking each other out, leading to a return of conventional warfare to the battlefield below. Either way, the heavy use of drones in that conflict will yield useful lessons about the future of warfare.
Ukraine
If the current patterns observed by Lieven and others continue to hold, drones may have made it impossible, barring a complete collapse of one side, for either Russia or Ukraine to “win” the war militarily. As a former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine observed [ [link removed] ] in April, “The drone revolution has created a hardened and unyielding environment. Any visual sighting or electronic broadcast often leads to an attack within seconds, preventing either side from achieving a decisive breakthrough, even when willing to sustain heavy losses. Mobility is being sacrificed for protection, and stalemate has ensued.”
The United States has sent Ukraine some 31 Abrams tanks, each costing something like $10 million. But most of these have been incapacitated by far less costly drones, and along with other vehicles, they have mostly been taken off the front lines. Moreover, infantry cannot be massed due to drone strikes, and it is commonly estimated that drones are now inflicting 70% or 80% of the war’s casualties.
In addition, it appears that drone attacks have substantially replaced attacks by less accurate and far more expensive artillery. Troops can survive all but direct hits by artillery by diving into a trench when the sound of incoming is heard, but locked-in drones can’t be outrun and can follow their intended victim into the trench. Despite these problems, Russian forces were able to advance slightly during 2024 and may be able to continue to do so—but at that rate of advance, it would take them 116 years to conquer the rest of Ukraine.
Drones are not only effective but relatively easy to obtain. Ukraine can make drones in tiny machine shops, and it has been producing them each year by the hundreds of thousands or even millions. For example [ [link removed] ], one such shop in Kyiv, making use of the services of people such as a former expert cross-stitcher who has decided to put her skills to work to defend her country, produces over 1,000 drones per year. And there are more than a dozen such shops in just that city alone. Overwhelmingly, drones are fabricated [ [link removed] ] from commercially available hardware and open-source software. And classes [ [link removed] ] on drone-making are available online.
Thus, if drones have made tanks and troop aggregations impossible, they may have made the stalemate essentially permanent, and they possibly can continue to do so without a whole lot of fancy and expensive Western aid.
Taiwan
Drones may also prove to be an important added deterrent in the Taiwan Strait. The problems attendant [ [link removed] ] on an amphibious attack from a tempestuous sea are already likely to be sobering to Chinese planners as they consider an invasion of Taiwan. A massive amphibious landing requiring thousands of ships to transport invading troops would be very difficult, as many military analysts have emphasized.
In addition, resistance in the form of guerrilla and urban warfare by some of the 20 million intensely hostile residents of Taiwan could prove to be extensive. The island’s interior is mountainous, with many tunnels and narrow passes that could be mined or closed by bombs or snipers. The judgment of the CIA in 2023, according [ [link removed] ] to its director William Burns, is that “President Xi and his military leaders have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion” and that “if they look at Putin’s experience in Ukraine, that’s probably reinforced some of those doubts.”
The prospect of drone attacks on the seas makes the costs of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan even more prohibitive, and American military leaders have reportedly [ [link removed] ] studied the Ukrainian experience to see if any lessons can be learned, should China make a move to attack Taiwan. As The New York Times has noted [ [link removed] ], in the early days of the war in Ukraine, “Russian warships, visible from shore, menaced the coast.” Three years later, however, Russian ships only “rarely” enter the area, “while its navy has pulled most of its valuable assets from ports in the occupied Crimean Peninsula, fearing Ukrainian attack.”
This important change, observes The Times, occurred because “crude Ukrainian robotic vessels packed with explosives” were able to “sail hundreds of miles across choppy waters to target enemy ships.” As the commander of Ukraine’s naval forces points out, “while traditional naval weapons and warships remained necessary,” drones have “ushered in a new era in maritime operations.” Moreover, the admiral continues, “This is not just a tactical tool but a strategic shift in the approach to naval warfare,” and he credits the drones with “altering the balance of power in the Black Sea.”
At present, Taiwan is developing drones only in the tens of thousands, but it may need far more than that to deal with a Chinese invasion. It has been urged [ [link removed] ] to lessen the gap, however, and it is clearly capable of doing so.
Invasion
Speculating more widely, conventional armed invasions may have become physically obsolete. If drones can continue to significantly impede troop concentrations and the accompanying use of heavy equipment, would-be invaders are likely to view their prospects with dismay. Invasion requires vehicles and masses of occupying troops, and it only makes sense in the drone age if the defenders are likely to fall apart. Sometimes, of course, such collapses have happened, as for the Communists in Vietnam in 1975; the Russians in Crimea in 2014; the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021; the rebels in Syria in 2024; the U.S. in the Gulf War, Panama and Grenada; and the initially successful invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.
Although the Ukrainians failed to oblige in 2022, that was likely Putin’s expectation when he launched his invasion. But his pre-war boast [ [link removed] ] that his soldiers “could be in Kyiv in two days” has, to say the least, proved to be hollow. A problem, as political theorist Richard Ned Lebow has noted [ [link removed] ], is that such miscalculation and self-delusion have very often prevailed in the history of warfare, including in the post-World War II era. It can only be hoped that the vivid and revolutionary experience with drones in the Russo-Ukrainian War will help cut through such miscalculations.

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