As the Senate continues the debate on changes to the child tax credit (CTC), we wanted to share a new resource from experts at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center: 2025 Reconciliation and the Child Tax Credit. The webpage provides key background information, estimates from the Tax Policy Center’s microsimulation model, and research and analysis that includes potential policy alternatives.
In a new blog post, researchers explore how a new restriction on the CTC, as proposed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, would exclude 2 million children with Social Security Numbers, most of whom are US citizens, from receiving the credit.
If you have questions about the research, please reply to this email. We’re happy to connect you with one of our experts.
Greetings—
Several provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) affecting individual income taxes are set to expire after 2025. Key among these expiring provisions are changes to the child tax credit (CTC), a credit worth up to $2,000 per child under 17.
Phase in the CTC starting with the first dollar of earnings up to $2,000 per child.
Phase in the CTC at 15 percent per child, up to 45 percent.
Combine options 1 and 2.
Make the CTC fully refundable for newborns.
Extend CTC eligibility to 17-year-old children.
Increase the maximum CTC to $2,500 per child.
Increase the maximum CTC to $5,000 per child.
Enhance the phase-in and increase the maximum CTC to $2,500 per child (fully refundable for newborns).
Enhance the phase-in, increase the maximum CTC to $2,500 per child (fully refundable for newborns), and modify the phaseout.
According to the researchers,
options that phase the CTC in faster for some or all families with low incomes or a newborn child would concentrate benefits on the lowest income families, a sound investment in our nation’s future. Options that extend the credit to older children or increase the maximum credit would generally support families with middle and high incomes, generally costing much more than proposals focused on lower income families.
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