Hi John,

The victory for the populist far-right candidate in the Polish presidential election is disappointing. The MAGA-fication of European politics is a threat to civil liberties, our continental unity and is damaging for European democracy. 

BUT there are green shoots of hope. Recent elections have proved the value of engaging with voters, of driving turnout at elections and the danger of aping divisive populist messages.

What happened in Poland? 🇵🇱

The victory for nationalist historian Karol Nowrocki by the tightest of margins in Sunday’s presidential election in Poland is a devastating blow for Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Nowrocki, the candidate for the right-wing populist Law and Justice Party that Tusk defeated in parliamentary elections in 2023, will now set about hampering Tusk’s ambitions to bring Poland deeper into EU leadership alongside France and Germany. 

The Polish constitution gives Nowrocki the power to veto any laws passed by Tusk that do not command a three-fifths majority, and with Tusk commanding the slenderest of majorities in the Sejm (the Polish parliament), frustration seems likely. 

Last night, Tusk announced he would call a vote of confidence to reassert his authority. While he's likely to win the vote, the ability of Tusk's government to make meaningful progress on reforms such as restoring the rule of law, allowing same-sex partnerships or loosening Poland's strict abortion laws is now in serious doubt.

Trump: “Congratulations Poland, you picked a WINNER!” 🇺🇸

Trump’s statement on his Truth Social platform following the election highlights the symbiosis between European and American populism. Nowrocki's campaign was described as "the most racist and antisemitic campaign observed in Poland since 1989"; meanwhile in Hungary, Viktor Orbán's regime has created what one commentator calls a "Christian Conservative Disneyland”. Before MAGA there was MHGA. 

Individuals in Trump's inner circle have also been accused of meddling in European elections - JD Vance's decision to meet with the leader of the far-right AfD, Alice Weidel, ahead of the German election and not the then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, raised eyebrows across the continent and was slammed by Scholz as 'interference'.

Hope Romains 🇷🇴

Not all of those aping Trump have succeeded. Anti-Trump sentiment changed the polls in the recent Australian and Canadian elections, and just a few weeks ago the Mayor of Bucharest Nicusor Dan took a surprise victory in the Romanian election, turning around a significant first-round deficit against MAGA-mimic George Simion.

Dan's victory stemmed from both his commitment to delivering public service improvements during his time as mayor, and a spike in turnout for the second round of voting. Collaboration between progressive movements also proved critical, with the change in vote share for Dan between the first and second rounds partially explained by the coalescing of left-wing support behind one figure.

The creeping tide of right-wing authoritarianism and the repression of rights has reasserted itself in Poland. But victory is never inevitable. The narrow margin of the populist candidate's victory provides hope. 

After all, in functioning democracies, history is not just written by the victors - but by the voters.

Best wishes,

Joshua

Joshua Edwicker
Content Officer

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