The House’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” could add at least $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years—the latest sign that elected officials are not serious about addressing the United States’ rapidly deteriorating debt situation. In a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, R. Glenn Hubbard and coauthors demonstrate that it will be impossible to stabilize the debt without spending cuts and revenue increases but identify ambitious, pro-growth policies that could lessen the cost.
The Trump administration’s skepticism of immigration makes this task harder, as Hubbard’s paper shows that increasing high-skill immigration can significantly expand economic productivity and tax revenue. In a new AEI Foreign and Defense Policy working paper, Nicholas Eberstadt and Patrick Norrick underline these economic contributions as part of a comprehensive statistical snapshot of America’s immigration situation today. Another policy area Hubbard identifies is housing, where regulatory barriers drive up costs and limit economic growth. In new analysis drawing from the AEI Housing Center’s homebuilder metrics, Codirector Tobias Peter shows how local governments can work with large developers to build more entry-level homes. One positive cost-cutting measure the House bill embraces is increased work requirements for federal welfare programs, which can move low-income Americans out of government dependency into self-sufficient employment. In a new AEI report, Angela Rachidi assesses the effectiveness of work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. By restarting the payment of federal student loans after what was effectively a four-and-a-half-year pause, the administration is ending one of the Biden presidency’s most fiscally irresponsible and costly policies. In a new report, higher education finance expert Preston Cooper examines the full scope of the challenge of rebuilding the federal student loan system. |