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Stabilizing the Debt

Pro-Growth Policies and Federal Budget Deficits

May 31, 2025

The House’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” could add at least $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years—the latest sign that elected officials are not serious about addressing the United States’ rapidly deteriorating debt situation. In a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, R. Glenn Hubbard and coauthors demonstrate that it will be impossible to stabilize the debt without spending cuts and revenue increases but identify ambitious, pro-growth policies that could lessen the cost.

 

 

The Trump administration’s skepticism of immigration makes this task harder, as Hubbard’s paper shows that increasing high-skill immigration can significantly expand economic productivity and tax revenue. In a new AEI Foreign and Defense Policy working paper, Nicholas Eberstadt and Patrick Norrick underline these economic contributions as part of a comprehensive statistical snapshot of America’s immigration situation today.

 

Another policy area Hubbard identifies is housing, where regulatory barriers drive up costs and limit economic growth. In new analysis drawing from the AEI Housing Center’s homebuilder metrics, Codirector Tobias Peter shows how local governments can work with large developers to build more entry-level homes.

 

One positive cost-cutting measure the House bill embraces is increased work requirements for federal welfare programs, which can move low-income Americans out of government dependency into self-sufficient employment. In a new AEI report, Angela Rachidi assesses the effectiveness of work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

 

By restarting the payment of federal student loans after what was effectively a four-and-a-half-year pause, the administration is ending one of the Biden presidency’s most fiscally irresponsible and costly policies. In a new report, higher education finance expert Preston Cooper examines the full scope of the challenge of rebuilding the federal student loan system.

The Triumph of Economic Freedom

Capitalism has unleashed unimaginable growth in opportunity and prosperity, but many Americans point to disruptions and financial crises like the Industrial Revolution, Great Depression, and Great Recession, along with present levels of income inequality and poverty, as strong evidence that the government should expand its presence in the economy. In a new book, The Triumph of Economic Freedom: Debunking the Seven Great Myths of American Capitalism, former Senator and economist Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux reassess this conventional wisdom. In every case, their analysis finds that the historical record provides little justification for the ever-expanding presence of government regulation and control, which pose the most significant threat to Americans’ economic future—not capitalism’s excesses.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Americans didn’t like that mix of human tragedy and strategic humiliation when it happened in Afghanistan. They won’t like it much better if it happens in Ukraine. The war in that country may end up haunting [Donald] Trump, no matter how much he insists it’s not his fight.”

Hal Brands