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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1267
05/19/2025
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1) We Stand with Chip

No one wants to get the Trump tax cut on the President's desk for signature as urgently as we do.

But the more we look at the fine print, however, the more we think Chip Roy and the other budget-hawk rabble-rousers were right to hold out for a better bill.
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Three easy fixes would vastly improve the bill:
* First, the conservative upstarts were right to protest the meager Medicaid reforms. The work requirements for able-bodied adults don't kick in until after Trump is out of office in 2029? Absurd. They should start tomorrow.
* Second, most of the $750+ billion in Biden "Green New Scam" giveaways don't end until after 2028. Chip Roy is right: "Move those up, to front load the savings."
* Finally, add back the 15% corporate tax rate either for all companies - or at a minimum for made-in-America producers. The House leadership argues the current bill makes the EFFECTIVE rate 15% when all the deductions are added in. If that's true, then eliminate them all and drop the rate. Permanently. Then everyone will cheer. Deductions are bad. Rate cuts are good. Duh!

With these three reforms the tax bill, it will really be big and beautiful.
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2) 3% Growth Gains $4 Trillion in Revenues

Speaking of spending cuts, a big story in WSJ argues that the House budget makes the deficit worse.
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Not so fast. Trump economist Kevin Hassett on Friday identified a big flaw in the CBO budget forecast for making the Trump tax cuts permanent. It doesn't account for any economic growth.

The CBO says the Trump tax cut will "cost" $4.5 trillion over 10 years. But as Hassett notes, if we get just 3% growth, the picture improves markedly with $4 trillion smaller deficits.
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Regular HOTLINE readers will recall we've made this point repeatedly with the graph below.

If we get 3% real GDP growth then we get to a balanced budget, as the latest version from UP Economic Advisory Council member, Louis Woodhill shows. (We highly recommend his great new book FIX THE FED, which will be on Amazon soon.)

Should we believe CBO? These are the bean counters who were off by $1.5 trillion in scoring the 2017 Trump tax cut. Will Republicans let them fool us again?
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3) Hey Graduate: What's That Diploma Really Worth?

We're fans of Bruce Mehlman's Six Chart Substack. In particular, we like this chart on what's happening to the job offers to college graduates.
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College grads clearly get paid more. But based on data from the New York Federal Reserve Bank we see that for the past five years, recent college grads are MORE likely to be jobless than those with lesser education.

So is college worth $250,000? For some, yes, but for many others, we'd be better off writing them, say, a $200,000 check and putting it in the bank until they retire.
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4) Laffer Curve at 50

Last week, we celebrated the Laffer Curve turning 50-years-old, when it was first written on a cloth napkin at a restaurant in DC over a lunch attended by UP co-founder Arthur Laffer, Don Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney - then top aides to President Jerry Ford.

We urge readers to take a look at the fabulous full page story in the Wall Street Journal on Laffer's continuing influence on economic policy.
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This chart from Laffer Associates shows that every time the tax rate has come down, revenues have risen.

Here are some photos from our dinner:
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5) Disinformation Is in the Eyes of the Beholder

In February, Vice President JD Vance warned leaders at the Munich Security Conference that the European Union's new Digital Services Act could lead to "authoritarian censorship." He was met with stony-faced silence and denunciations for his "slander."

But this week, even the left-wing Economist warned in a headline: "Europe's Free Speech Problem: JD Vance Was Right."

The Digital Services Act requires online platforms to monitor, moderate, and remove content European bureaucrats deem hate speech, disinformation, and other forms of "harmful" content. This could be "the most comprehensive censorship law ever instituted in a democratic society."

The Economist also put out this wise warning: "Americans worry that Europeans' more restrictive approach to speech will seep into their own public sphere, as tech firms apply a single set of rules globally."

What Europe needs is a First Amendment right of free speech. And what we need in America are better safeguards against censorship, because Progressives are determined to bring European censorship the next time they control the government.

We like the traditional rule on free speech: sticks and stones may break my bones but words can never hurt me.
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6) Finally Got to the Bottom of This Mystery

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