Dear John,

In the week where Reform UK won the Runcorn by-election, by just six (SIX!) votes, the Tories took a thrashing at local elections, and seemingly Labour paid the electoral price for PIP and winter fuel payment cuts, this is your Weekend Wire…

 At sixes and sevens

Many commentators had predicted that the Runcorn by-election would be a close run affair, but no one could have predicted just how tight the race would prove to be. After a recount requested by Labour, Reform UK came out victorious by just six votes, one of the closest constituency races in British political history. Indeed, only six races have been won by a finer margin, with North East Fife in 2017 and Winchester in 1997 being decided by just two votes each.

Both Reform and Labour saw a dramatic swing in vote shares from the 2024 General Election with Labour’s vote share dropping from 53% to 37.70% and Reform’s rising to 38.72% from 18%. As is usually the case with by-elections, turnout was poor at 46%.

Labour’s task in retaining the seat was made all the more difficult as the by-election was caused by the criminal conviction of the Labour MP who won it last time round. The Labour party chair also highlighted the traditional difficulty of by-elections for incumbent governments accepting that “People are impatient for change”. 

The victorious Reform UK candidate, Sarah Ponchin, becomes the party's first female MP. The former Tory councillor (I wonder how many Tories are thinking of jumping ship this morning?) and magistrate of twenty years has previously described immigrants as “flooding our country”. In her victory speech, Ponchin criticised “Tory failure and Labour lies”  and suggested that her victory would “inspire the country”. The repetition of harmful anti-immigrant sentiment is another reminder of the dangers that the rise of Reform creates for our countries, in particular for the rights of vulnerable and often disadvantaged groups, the use of divisive language and rhetoric should have no place in our politics.

Disenchantment with the status quo

Local elections were held in 23 councils across England, mostly in rural and suburban areas where Tory support had traditionally been strong - as well as six mayoral elections across the country. After reaching a high watermark in 2021, the only way was down and Tories had long feared a devastating night for their party. One Tory MP  told The Times that he knew his party was in trouble; when only six turned up to help him canvass 

Reform UK and Liberal Democrat officials had spoken of the collapse of the grassroots Tory party election machine but a  particular area of worry for the Conservatives will be the ease with which (former Tory) Andrea Jenkyns won the inaugural Lincolnshire mayorship. Jenkyns won in every area of the county, bar one, securing 42% of the vote, comfortably clear of her Conservative candidate Rob Waltham. However, it is important to note that turn-out was a measly 29%. 

Elsewhere, narrowly re-elected Labour Doncaster Mayor Ros Jones criticised her party in her victory speech for the change in policy over winter fuel allowance, a theme which alongside Labour’s decision to reduce PIP payments, appears to have been received poorly on doorsteps. One Labour campaigner told Henry Zeffman of the BBC that “On every door it was the same story - winter fuel and PIP”.

Responding to the results on Friday, the Prime Minister labelled the results “disappointing” and promised “further and faster change”.

What's driving people to vote Reform?

Despite Reform UK’s strong performance in these elections, our polling suggests that this success was not driven by opposition to closer EU-UK relations. Our  polling shows that people who voted Reform UK at the last election support deepening EU-UK ties.

 A remarkable seven in ten (70%) want the government to remove trade barriers between the EU and UK with four in five in favour of greater cooperation to tackle crime and reduce illegal channel crossings (80% and 81% respectively). Around half are in favour of both a new defence pact with the EU (52%) and a Youth Mobility Scheme (49%) compared to the 36% and 38% respectively who are opposed.

In a more recent poll, of people who voted Labour at the last election but said they would consider voting Reform next time, more say the government isn't going far enough in improving the EU UK relationship. Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain said;

“On the doorstep cutting PIP and winter fuel payments are the reasons voters gave for abandoning Labour, who themselves stated growth is their top priority. 

“The UK-EU Summit is just weeks away, and this election result should serve as a reminder of why Keir Starmer must secure a common sense deal with Europe that ends the doom loop of  economic stagnation, restores public service funding and tackles inflation. That’s what voters will reward at the next election.”

On Tuesday 29 April, Best for Britain's CEO Naomi Smith gave evidence to the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee on "the UK-EU reset: rebuilding a strategic partnership in uncertain times".

Watch Naomi's contribution to the session, including insights into our research with Frontier Economics on how a common sense deal with the EU on goods and services could boost the UK economy by up to 2.2%.

Carney do it? Yes he can

Earlier in the week, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured one of the greatest political comebacks in living memory.  At the turn of the year, the Liberal Party was over 20 points behind the Conservatives in the polls. Fast forward four months and the resignation of Justin Trudeau, the appointment of Mark Carney and the shadow of Trump has propelled the Liberals to a Lazarus-like resurrection of popularity.

Since his inauguration, concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Canada have been realised with the US President enacting a series of damaging import duties on all goods entering the country from Canada (except those covered by a North American trade deal known as USMCA). Alongside a harmful economic policy, Trump has increased his rhetoric about absorbing Canada as the ‘51st State’ and often referred to the former Canadian Prime Minister as ‘Governor Trudeau’. 

On the eve of the election, Trump posted on his Truth Social site that Canadians should elect Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and join the United States; promising “ALL POSITIVES AND NO NEGATIVES”  and an end to all tariffs. Aware of how toxic any apparent link between his campaign and Trump had proven during the previous couple of months, Poilievre was quick to distance himself from Trump’s comments. But it was too little too late. Not only has Poilievre lost the election ,but he has also lost his own parliamentary seat.

During the campaign Carney was asked what lessons he had learnt from his time in charge of the Bank of England during Brexit in particular relation to tariffs. Carney, criticised for his warnings against the damage that Brexit would do to the UK economy during the 2016 Referendum, answered that “When you break off or rupture trade relations with major trading partners, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, lower currency (and) a weaker economy”. With the most recent OBR figures finding that Brexit has led to a 4% decrease in GDP, it is evident Carney’s concerns were well founded.

Throw a vote on the barbie

Two elections for you to keep a watchful eye on over this bank holiday weekend. First, the Australian election where YouGov’s final MRP predicts an 18-seat majority for Labor. More than 18 million Aussies will head to the polls on Saturday in their famously compulsory election. Those Down Under will have to choose between the current PM, Labor’s Anthony Albanese and  the leader of the opposition, Peter Dutton.

The second is a little closer to home with a re-run of the Romanian election on Sunday. You might remember that the first Romanian Presidential election was held in November last year and was won by Călin Georgescu, a far-right, anti-EU, Moscow-friendly independent who flew from obscurity just days before the election to defeat the two frontrunners. Georgescu was disqualified after Romanian intelligence revealed that the election had fallen foul to a possible Russian influence operation.This time round, another far-right candidate leads the field. We will have to wait and see whether the Romanian people maintain their current pro-European path or reenter  the Kremlin’s orbit…

Cringe Column 

As the Fast Show once said it has been scorchio, let’s hope that continues this bank holiday weekend, thank you for your time as always and I will catch you soon,

Joshua Edwicker

Content Officer

Best for Britain