From The Ripon Forum

April 2025

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** Security, Stability, and a Smarter Immigration Debate: What Voters Want Now
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** by Leslie Sanchez
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Every election cycle reveals something about what voters are really thinking. In this last election, immigration was front and center. After four years of Joe Biden's presidency, immigration had become more than an abstract policy question, suddenly encompassing everyday concerns such as economic security, public safety, and trust in government.

Across the country, voters made it clear they want an immigration system that’s fair but also much firmer. And this may produce a paradoxical result. President Trump's execution of his surprisingly hawkish mandate for "mass deportations" and hardening of the border, if it increases voters' trust in the system, may finally create the conditions for a comprehensive immigration reform plan to pass.

Recent polling data reveal a growing and nuanced perspective among American voters — especially Hispanic voters in Texas — toward immigration policy and border security. Since 2022, public opinion has decisively shifted in favor of tougher enforcement. Yet support for a compassionate resolution for long-term undocumented residents also remains intact. This dual result — favoring law and order with a pragmatic eye toward reform — reflects not only national sentiment, but also kitchen-table concerns, particularly among the many working-class Latino voters who crossed over to back Trump.

Since 2022, public opinion has decisively shifted in favor of tougher enforcement. Yet support for a compassionate resolution for long-term undocumented residents also remains intact.

My work with Patrick Ruffini on the Hispanic Messaging Effectiveness Survey — part of a multi-year study commissioned and shared with permission by Texas Latino Conservatives (TLC) — is illuminating in this regard. Hispanic voters in the battleground districts of South Texas now favor Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 9 points (46 to 37 percent), a dramatic swing even from their 43-to-43 percent tie of 2022, let alone their historically solid allegiance to Democrats.

In short, the Hispanic vote in Texas — and increasingly in other places, too — is no longer as predictably Democratic as it once was. The ebbing of Latino partisanship comes at a moment of frustration over inflation, crime, and a perceived lack of control at the South Texas border.

The Biden years were very tough on South Texas communities, such that immigration, once an issue favorable to Democrats with these voters, is increasingly a plus for Republicans when messaged through the lens of economic stability and security.

The results tell the whole story. No Republican presidential candidate had carried Starr County – the most Hispanic county in America – in 130 years. Yet Republicans surged ahead even there, fueled by economic discontent and a desire for public order.

In fact, Trump had a breakthrough performance across South Texas, flipping seven historically blue border-area counties stretching from Eagle Pass to the Gulf of America. The margin in these counties swung in Republicans' favor by 148,000 votes over Mitt Romney's performance in 2012.

A 2025 Pew Research Center survey confirms the national appetite for stronger immigration enforcement. Fifty-nine percent support increased deportations of undocumented immigrants, and 58 percent back deploying additional military forces to the southern border. Support for completing the border wall has also climbed above 50 percent — its highest level in years.

This dual result — favoring law and order with a pragmatic eye toward reform — reflects not only national sentiment, but also kitchen-table concerns, particularly among the many working-class Latino voters who crossed over to back Trump.

Yet public support is not unconditional. Just 47 percent favor cutting federal funds to sanctuary cities. Only 44 percent approve suspending asylum applications. These numbers show that Americans want to see the laws enforced, but not at the expense of compassion or fairness.

Among Texas Hispanic voters, this balance is even clearer. In 2023, 62 percent supported stronger border security measures, and 69 percent also supported either legal status or a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who are already in the U.S. This suggests that the mainstream voter perspective — particularly among working-class Latinos — is not about closing America off, but about restoring control, trust, and a sense of fairness in the system.

Why the Messaging Matters: Economics and Everyday Values

By 2023, the TLC survey revealed that Hispanic battleground voters are increasingly responsive to candidates focused on economic and public safety issues. When asked to choose between two unnamed candidates — one focused on crime, inflation, and the border, and the other on clean energy, preserving the right to abortion, and threats to democracy — 63 percent chose the former. This framing perfectly mirrors Trump’s successful messaging in 2024.

What we’re hearing from Latino voters — especially men — isn’t about ideology. It’s about real life. As one respondent told us: “The price of food is going up, and nobody is doing anything about it.” These voters were hard-hit by pandemic-era shutdowns and especially vulnerable to inflation. What they want is simple: jobs, security, and a chance to thrive.

At the same time, frustration with the Democratic Party has grown. Many Latino voters say it is too focused on cultural debates and disconnected from their economic concerns. In South Texas and other key battlegrounds, this has helped Republicans make historic inroads.

Given the evolving landscape of public opinion and the stakes of the 2026 midterm elections, Republican lawmakers should embrace an immigration reform message that reflects voter priorities.

1. Lead with Security, Deliver Practical Solutions: Voters overwhelmingly support stronger immigration enforcement. Republicans should increase border resources to stop the flow and keep arresting and deporting lawbreakers. The more ruthlessly they enforce the law, the more quickly they can move to the next step of providing legal status for long-term undocumented residents who contribute to society.

2. Avoid Overreach: Americans support enforcement — not extremism. Proposals like cutting funding to sanctuary cities or freezing all grants of asylum have less support. Policies rooted in justice, not merely punishment, are more politically sustainable.

3. Frame Immigration in Economic Terms: Show how secure borders help to stabilize wages, bring down housing prices, reduce pressure on public services, and create a system that works for everyone — especially the working class.

4. Invest in Community Outreach: Republicans must continue showing up in Latino communities nationwide. Gains in places like South Texas, Arizona, and even parts of Nevada and California were hard-won. Sustaining them will require trust, visibility, and continued engagement.

America has arrived at a crossroads in the immigration debate, one that has brought with it not only a realignment of Hispanic voters, but an opportunity for Republicans to build a winning coalition with these voters in the years ahead.

Leslie Sanchez is a Republican strategist, author of Los Republicanos: Why Hispanics and Republicans Need Each Other, and a contributor to CBS News.

The Ripon Forum is published six times a year by The Ripon Society, a public policy organization that was founded in 1962 and takes its name from the town where the Republican Party was born in 1854 –Ripon, Wisconsin. One of the main goals of The Ripon Society is to promote the ideas and principles that have made America great and contributed to the GOP’s success. These ideas include keeping our nation secure, keeping taxes low and having a federal government that is smaller, smarter and more accountable to the people.

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