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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1249
04/23/2025
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1) All That Glitters Now Is Gold

Yesterday the gold price broke the $3,500 high water mark for the first time, and then when trade deals were announced, the price fell back to $3,350.

But since the start of the year the price is up more than 30%. Show us an asset class that has produced those kinds of returns.
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This higher gold price is a very bad sign. It means money is migrating out of productive private investment into the safe-haven holding pattern of gold. We think that this is a partial hedge against inflation, but more a fear of continued economic/tariff turmoil.

We are also seeing the gold price rise inversely with the fall in the dollar.
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These are the bitter fruits of Navarro-nomics so far.

If President Trump insists on tariffs, he should call for a 15% across the board import tariff to be offset with slashing federal tax rates to 15% on everything else. The market would snap back pronto and red ink would be turned green.
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2) More Signs of Rising Middle Class Abundance

Yesterday we showed definitive evidence that the middle class over the past 40 years hasn't disappeared, but has grown more affluent.

Another way of measuring rising living standards is to calculate how many hours Americans have to work to obtain things. The Cato Institute's Simon Abundance Index is named for Julian Simon, one of our heroes for slaying resource-scarcity doomsayers. It shows the change since 1980 in the prices of commodities, measured in hours worked at the median wage. Americans can now buy about twice as much with their earnings than they could in 1980:

Time prices for individual commodities decreased, on average, by 70.4 percent between 1980 and 2024, ranging from −2.9 percent for oranges to −85.2 percent for lamb. That means that the average inhabitant of the planet saw their personal resource abundance increase by 238.1 percent, ranging from 2.9 percent for oranges to 573.6 percent for lamb. Put differently, the same length of work that allowed the average inhabitant of the planet to purchase 1 unit in our basket of 50 commodities in 1980 allowed him or her to buy 3.381 units in 2024.
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3) Trump Promises No "Read My Lips" Sequel!

More evidence that the powers that be are reading and taking to heart our HOTLINE messages. Two weeks ago we sounded the alarm on GOP chatter of raising the tax rate on "the rich." Our warning: no GOP "read my lips” redux.

Yesterday, Trump picked up on the theme and pinged former House Speaker Newt Gingrich this hopeful message:

"George Bush said, 'READ MY LIPS, NO NEW TAXES,' then proceeded to give a rather small Tax increase, and was obliterated. While I love the idea of a small increase, the Democrats would probably use it against us, and we would be, like Bush, helpless to do anything about it! So if you can do without it, you're probably better off trying to do so. We don't need to be the 'READ MY LIPS' gang who lost an Election, for no reason!"

We hope this is the final word on this subject, but there are heretics among us.
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4) Canadian Voters Have a Chance to Reject Socialism Once and for All

Canadians go to the polls next Monday. The Canadian economy has been in a rut for 15 years.

Will the voters have the courage to change directions? In 2010, Canada's national income per head was 80% that of the U.S. Now it is just 70%. Were Canada's ten provinces to comprise an American state, it would be worse off than Alabama, the fourth-poorest U.S. state. In 2023, per capita GDP in current U.S. dollars is $82,769 for Americans versus only $53,431 for Canadians.
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A big reason is that big spending and burdensome regulations have crushed Canada's provinces, while the opposite is true in most U.S. states. Indeed, the Fraser Institute's report "Economic Freedom In North America" finds that New Mexico is the only U.S. state to have become less economically free since the 1980s. Even so, New Mexico is still more free than all but two Canadian provinces.

The debate in Canada should be over why it has fallen so far behind. Instead, the incumbent Liberal Party government and its media allies have pretended that the only campaign issue is how best to man the barricades against the Trump Administration. If Canadians choose poorly, the country will get poorer.
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5) Green Energy Takes a Big Hit in New York

More evidence that the green energy fad of the last decade is in rapid decline.

In January, Governor Hochul backtracked on her scheme to tax fossil fuel companies for their carbon emissions after she was told a) the cost would be $15 billion a year, and b) similar schemes in California and Washington state had raised gasoline prices by some 27 cents a gallon.

Now, another hammer has dropped on her. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has halted all construction on the state's showcase Empire Wind project (off of Long Island), because the projects are so expensive and the power so unreliable. Work on the project had continued even though President Trump paused new approvals for offshore wind farms on his first day in office. "Approval for the project was rushed through by the prior administration without sufficient analysis or consultation," Burgum wrote.
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New York closed its big Indian Point nuclear plant in 2021 to environmentalist fanfare. The two gigawatts of power it provided would equal the power they were hoping for from both now halted offshore wind boondoggles. Oops.

The latest ALEC Rich States, Poor States report lists New York as the least economically competitive state in the nation. Relying on expensive and unreliable energy sources is no way to make the Empire State great again
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6) On the Bright Side…

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