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The secondary disruptive aspects of Trump’s abrupt increase in tariffs have largely escaped notice. How will producers try to rearrange their supply chains in response to new after-tax costs? How can they anticipate further changes as Trump keeps changing the terms? And how will customs officials, already spread thin, process and collect these new tariffs?

When a product subject to a tariff comes into a U.S. port of entry, someone has to assess the tax owed and collect it. This is mostly an automated process. But when Trump tried to end the "de minimis" rule, under which packages worth less than $800 could enter the U.S. duty-free and without inspection, the pileup crashed the Postal Service system for processing packages and the rule had to be suspended. About one billion low-value packages were required to go through the full customs treatment, but the 10 percent or so that go through USPS were the ones causing the problem.

Trump has reinstated that de minimis rule to take effect May 2, while putting a higher price on postal packages that were seen as the trigger for the crash. But in the meantime, the imposition of a complex schedule of tariffs on more than 100 different countries could present other logistical problems. More important, because the new tariff schedule changes the after-tax prices of imported inputs, producers are re-examining their entire system of global sourcing.

Chris Clowes, from the cargo consultancy Scala, told the trade paper Air Cargo News, "This kind of disruption puts enormous pressure on global supply chains. Businesses will be forced to reassess sourcing strategies, redirect shipments, and renegotiate contracts—all at short notice."

In addition, some global suppliers have warned customers that they may suspend shipments entirely, because of the impact of tariffs on their own cost structures. According to Reuters, Pittsburgh-based Howmet Aerospace, a key supplier of metal components for Boeing and Airbus aircraft, invoked force majeure—a legal doctrine and standard contract clause voiding contractual obligations in the face of wars or other unforeseen and uncontrollable events. Howmet invoked disruptions stemming from the declared national emergency and the executive orders on tariffs.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, an ocean and air freight shipping consultancy, said: "It is tough to make important decisions on your supply chain when the rules of the game keep changing. Many US shippers are right at the point of agreeing new long-term ocean container freight contracts coming into effect on 1 May, so this puts them in an extremely difficult position. Where will they be importing goods from in the next 12 months and which carrier should they choose?"

In addition, the administration has proposed a half-baked plan intended to promote American shipbuilding. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer formally proposed to levy a $1.5 million charge whenever a Chinese-built or -owned ship calls on an American port. About 38 percent of all container ships were built in China.

The unintended consequence is that smaller ports, in red and blue states alike, will lose business, because shippers will prefer to pay the fee just once, and route their shipping through large ports like New York–Newark or L.A.–Long Beach. Reviving U.S. shipbuilding, a decent goal, will take years if not decades. In the meantime, small ports will be sunk, and large ports will be clogged. That’s the kind of thing that could create shortages and logistical nightmares. The American Association of Port Authorities has come out against the plan.

Trump keeps complicating the tariff game by changing signals, and his advisers openly contradict each other. Chief economist Kevin Hassett told ABC News that at least 50 countries have offered to negotiate tariff reduction deals. The government of Vietnam offered Trump a zero-tariff deal, but according to Bloomberg another Trump adviser, Peter Navarro, scoffed at the offer because of Vietnam’s non-tariff barriers. And Trump himself insists that he is staying the course.

All of this makes it much harder for U.S. companies reliant on foreign inputs to plan, much less to expand, domestic output. Chaos works all too well as a strategy of disruption, not of production.