April 2, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Republicans Hold Florida Congressional Seats, Win Wisconsin Voter ID And Lose Wisconsin Supreme Court Seat As Democrats Overperform 

By Robert Romano 

Republicans held two key Congressional seats in the April 1 special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, with Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine both winning relatively easily over their Democratic opponents, 56.9 percent to 42.3 percent and 56.7 percent to 42.7 percent respectively. 

Both were seats in districts President Donald Trump and the prior Congressmen, Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, had carried by 30 points in 2024: 66 percent to 34 percent and 66.5 percent to 33.5 percent, respectively. So, Democrats overperformed by about 8 to 9 points in each district. 

Elsewhere, in Wisconsin, Republicans won a statewide constitutional amendment making Wisconsin the latest state to require voter identification to vote in elections, 62.8 percent to 37.2 percent. 

Meanwhile, Democrat Susan Crawford defeated Republican Brad Schimel 55 percent to 45 percent.  

In 2024, President Trump beat Kamala Harris Wisconsin 49.6 percent to 48.7 percent, while Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin narrowly held her seat over Eric Hovde, 49.3 percent to 48.5 percent. So, for the 2025 Supreme Court election, Democrats overperformed by about 5 to 6 points. 

Naturally, Democrats are portraying the results a clear verdict while liberal media outlets emphasize the underperformance by Republicans in both states. Are Republicans suddenly unpopular?  

Not exactly. In fact, these are the type of results to expect after Republicans just won the White House, House and Senate, and Democrats are in opposition, trying to regain power. This type of additional incentive boosts turnout for the opposition party, in special elections and in midterm elections, with the next one due in November 2026. 

For example, in Wisconsin, in 2018, with Trump in the White House, Tammy Baldwin was also reelected, but that time it was 55.3 percent to 44.5 percent over Leah Vukmir — very similar to the result that Susan Crawford received on April 1.  

And in Florida’s 6th congressional district, in 2018, Mike Waltz, now Trump’s National Security Advisor, was initially elected to the Ron DeSantis seat over Nancy Soderberg 56.3 percent to 43.7 percent — very similar to the result Randy Fine received on April 1.   

In other words, the April 1 special elections are very much what midterm elections look like for the White House incumbent party, in this case Republicans, who will try to defend the House and Senate. 

In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2022, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 34 seats.  

These trends will also impact state races in New Jersey and Virginia later this year, particularly for governor seats in both states.  

But for midterms, these trends in the past century, particularly in House races, have only been overcome in 1934, 1998 and 2002, with the Great Depression, Monica Lewinsky and the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks acting as exigent events. It’s not impossible, but it is highly unlikely. 

Those are the exceptions. The general rule favoring the opposition in midterms is all James Madison’s constitutional scheme of periodic elections, which is explicitly designed to frustrate and to temper the ability of majorities to get things done. 

Generally, the same trends will be in reverse when the White House incumbent party in its first term attempts to defend the Presidency, as Republicans will be doing in 2028, about two-thirds of the time. Then, the incumbency advantage kicks in again, this time favoring the House and Senate incumbents seeking reelection with the president or his successor on the ballot. 

It’s not fool proof — Joe Biden and Kamala Harris fumbled the incumbency advantage in 2024 thanks to high inflation and open borders — but it’s still a factor that will generally favor Republicans in 2028. 

For now, the current trends favor Democrats in the 2026 midterms, with Republicans as the White House incumbent seeking to find ways to maximize turnout to hold onto as many seats as possible.  

Regardless, for each party, both will make use of early voting, the idea of which is to get as many high propensity base votes off the list so resources can be further focused on those who haven’t voted yet. But to get above normal turnout means the parties also need to get lower propensity voters to show up, which is usually easier when a party is in opposition. For the next year and a half, Republicans will be attempting to offset Democratic enthusiasm and as April 1 showed — it will not be easy. 

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.  

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/04/republicans-hold-florida-congressional-seats-win-wisconsin-voter-id-and-lose-wisconsin-supreme-court-seat-as-democrats-overperform/ 

Massive Hispanic and Young Voter Shift Bolstering President Trump’s Approval Rating Now Compared to First Term  

By Manzanita Miller  

A searing new survey from Gallup is proving that the young and Hispanic voter shift toward President Donald Trump that pushed him over the finish line last November does not appear to be decelerating as Democrats had hoped.     

The survey, conducted March 3-16 among 1,002 adults, shows that key coalitions of Americans who formed the bulk of the shift toward President Trump are continuing to uphold a higher view of the president now compared to his first term.     

Despite the public meltdown on the left since President Trump assumed office and began acting on immigration, deportation, tariffs, and an audit of the federal government, Trump’s approval rating is higher now than it was in his first term, particularly among groups that moved toward him in 2024.  

Gallup data shows President Trump’s overall approval rating has risen three points from 42 percent in the first few months of hist first term to 45 percent today.   

However, his approval rating is up a startling twelve percentage points among people of color as a collective compared to his first term, going from just 20 percent in the first few months of 2017 to 32 percent today.  

Among Hispanics alone, Trump’s approval rating has risen fifteen percentage points, going from 22 percent in the first few months of 2017 to 37 percent approval today. Trump’s approval rating is also up nine points among Black Americans compared to where it was in the first few months of his first term according to the survey.  

Another significant shift has been among younger Americans – who have shifted substantially toward President Trump since his first term. Trump’s approval rating is up six points among voters eighteen to twenty-nine compared to his first term, going from 31 percent in the first few months of his first term to 37 percent today. Among slightly older Millennials and Gen X voters, Trump’s approval rating is up six points as well, going from 40 percent in the first few months of 2017 to 46 percent today. However, among voters over 60, Trump’s approval rating has declined six points, going from 50 percent in the first few months of 2017 to 44 percent today.   

Trump has also made gains among an unlikely group – college-educated Americans now hold a more favorable view of the president than they did eight years ago. According to the survey, Trump has gained three points among college-educated voters, going from a 36 percent approval rating in the first few months of 2017 to a 39 percent approval rating today.    

YouGov’s data amplifies Gallup’s data. YouGov breaks down presidential approval into overall approval of Trump as a public figure, and approval for how Trump is handling his job as president.  

When directly asked how voters feel Trump is handling his job as president, the share of Americans who approve of how he is handling the presidency is higher than his overall approval rating as a public figure.  

According to YouGov’s latest survey conducted March 22-25, Americans approve of how Trump is handling his job as president by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics approve of how Trump is handling his job as president by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, and young Americans approve of how Trump is handling his job as president by a full eight points, 49 percent to 41 percent.  

Immigration appears to be the most notable issue prompting these favorable views, as it is the issue President Trump holds the highest approval rating on among all Americans, including young people and Hispanics.  

According to YouGov, Americans approve of Trump’s approach to immigration by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent. Young people approve of Trump’s immigration policy by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent, and Hispanics approve by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent.  

This is notable because it indicates that the electoral shifts toward President Trump we watched over the last eight years are continuing to buoy the president’s approval rating five months after the election.   

While Americans do not approve of Trump’s handling of every issue, he is enjoying a much broader level of support from groups outside the traditional GOP core, with young voters and minorities showing increased levels of support compared to 2017. While it does not guarantee that support will stay, it also dispels the idea that support for Trump in 2024 was a reactionary flash in the pan and unsustainable. Whether these voters fully integrate into the conservative movement remains to be seen, but swing voters appear to be giving Trump a chance.   

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.  

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/04/massive-hispanic-and-young-voter-shift-bolstering-president-trumps-approval-rating-now-compared-to-first-term/