Good morning, 

Is Texas a general election battleground state? And why should anyone ever let themselves think that it isn’t? 

Here is today's Texas Minute.

– Michael Quinn Sullivan 

Thursday, June 4, 2020
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• Two Republican members of the Texas Legislature are spearheading efforts to pass a “comprehensive LGBTQ nondiscrimination bill.” Republican State Reps. Sarah Davis of Houston and Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi announced they plan to join a group of Democrat lawmakers in cosponsoring legislation  that would violate the Texas GOP platform and create a protected class of individuals based on sexual behavior. Cary Cheshire has the details.
        

• Sarah Davis is  widely recognized as the most liberal Republican in the Texas House. In the most recent legislative session, Davis earned a 30 (out of 100) on the Fiscal Responsibility Index, making her the lowest-performing Republican – and even underperforming two Democrat lawmakers. Todd Hunter is one of the longest-serving members of the Texas House and was first elected as a Democrat before switching parties. He earned a 55 on the Index last session. Notably, the Index does not include votes on social issues.
      

• Gov. Greg Abbott is continuing to slowly loosen the grip of government-mandated shutdowns in response to the Chinese Coronavirus, announcing yesterday Phase III of his phased plan to “reopen Texas.” Brandon Waltens has the details, which include allowing restaurants to expand their maximum table size from 6 to 10 persons.
      

• The continued partial closure of Texas contrasts with images of protests – some peaceful, some riotous and violent – from across the state, where “social distancing” appears to have been thrown by the wayside.

• As an increasing number of lawmakers voice opposition to the recently signed $295 million deal to bring contact tracing to Texas, Brandon Waltens reports on new concerns being raised about the agreement and the company awarded the contract. Gov. Greg Abbott awarded the contract last month to MTX Group.
      
• “As the ink on the contract was drying, we learned that MTX did not have experience in contact tracing or the handling of confidential medical information that is at the core of the project.” – State Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands)
        
• Dallas County’s top election official – Democrat Toni Pippins-Poole – announced she is retiring after the 2020 presidential election, ending a controversial nine-year tenure. Pippins-Poole made her announcement before the Dallas County Elections Commission – the entity which hired her. The commission has not met since she was brought on, nor have they ever reviewed her performance. Erin Anderson has the details.
      
• In a provocative blog post, our own Robert Montoya compares riots occurring today with those in Tsarist Russia of the past, how one man worked to resolve them, and the lessons we should learn. He finds the way forward is to address people’s concerns while maintaining constitutional law and order based in liberty.
       
• At the Texas Home School Coalition’s website, Meagan Corser examines a poignant question: who determines what is in the best interest of a child? As she explains, a pending case before the Supreme Court of Texas will have far reaching consequences for every family in the Lone Star State.

• A new poll from Quinnipiac University finds President Trump with just a one point lead over Joe Biden in November... in Texas. As The Texan’s Brad Johnson reports, “Each candidate is overwhelmingly supported by their respective party voters, unsurprisingly. But Biden received more independent support than Trump by a ratio of 45:36.”
     
• Here is the usual reminder that polling data needs to be treated with a heavy degree of skepticism. All of them have biases (as we all do) and even the best represents a snapshot in time.
   
• Regardless, this poll should be a reminder to Republicans – who have grown accustomed to winning in Texas – that complacency can be a killer. The Democrats had complete control of Texas for a century; they thought they’d have it forever... right up until the time they did not.
   
• But, again, one must be careful about how much stock to put in a poll. For all the statistical science around polling, it is still an art – and it turns out only as good as the data and the “artist” explaining it.
      
• For example, the Quinnipiac Poll claims 50 percent of Texans think the state’s economy is just fine. Really? Sales tax revenues are at their lowest point in a decade; oil and gas production is stalled; and – worst of all – there are more than 2.5 million working age adults (15 percent of the state workforce) who had jobs in February but are now unemployed. Those are not signs of a healthy economy. Who was polled?

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