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Daily News Brief

February 14, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s order for sweeping changes to U.S. tariffs, as well as...

  • U.S. assurances about Ukraine’s role in peace talks

  • A meeting between Trump and India’s prime minister
  • Syria asks Kurdish fighters to lay down arms

There will be no Daily News Brief Monday, February 17, in observance of President’s Day. 

Top of the Agenda

Trump announced a new “reciprocal” approach to U.S. tariffs yesterday that could hike rates on allies and adversaries alike. Citing a desire to lower the U.S. trade deficit and boost competitiveness, Trump ordered his top officials to propose tariffs country-by-country based on the duties and other barriers that each trading partner imposed on U.S. goods. Such a system would depart from decades of norms established at the World Trade Organization. It also runs against a longstanding U.S. philosophy of viewing the country’s open economy as an advantage.

 

The order does not impose tariffs immediately. An unnamed White House official told reporters that countries would be able to negotiate with Washington regarding the new tariff levels—opening the door to a scramble for talks.

 

The details.

  • Trump’s Commerce Secretary nominee said that by April 1, studies for each country should be ready. Trump could then immediately impose the recommended new tariffs.

  • White House memos say Trump will consider U.S. tariffs in retaliation for other kinds of levies by foreign countries, such as Canada and France’s digital service taxes or countries’ value-added taxes.

  • Trump also threatened tariffs triggered by a broad range of “non-tariff barriers" to trade, such as foreign countries’ food safety requirements, export subsidies, and “anticompetitive conduct of state-owned or private firms.”

  • The White House said Trump could claim legal authority for these measures by invoking national security, unfair trading, and emergency economic powers. 

Next steps. Defining new rates under the “reciprocal” approach could take months, Bloomberg reported. It would allow for significantly higher tariff rates on products from scores of countries—and Trump immediately faced questions about its potential inflationary effect. “Prices could go up short-term, but prices will also go down,” Trump said.

 

Trump announced the measures right before a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, one of the countries he blamed for “unfair” trade practices in his memo. The two leaders emerged with a commitment to negotiate a trade deal, Trump said. If it hadn’t already, the topic appears poised to permeate many U.S. bilateral relationships. 

“Tearing up the entire tariff code (I repeat, a code approved by Congress) and replacing it with an entirely new tariff code using the President's Emergency Economic Powers would be an enormous expansion of executive authority. Absolutely enormous. Tariffs are taxes,” CFR expert Brad Setser posts.

Trump’s National Security Tariffs

Without any exemptions, President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are likely to negatively affect the U.S. defense sector, critical infrastructure, and U.S. allies, CFR expert Jonathan E. Hillman writes for RealEcon.

Employees work in a factory that exports their aluminum and steel products to the U.S. from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, February 11, 2025. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)

Employees work in a factory that exports their aluminum and steel products to the U.S. from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters

Across the Globe

Recalibrating on Ukraine. Trump said yesterday that Ukraine and other actors beyond Russia would be involved in talks on ending the war. His comments came after Ukraine and European allies pushed back against the prospect of bilateral U.S.-Russia negotiations without Kyiv—and against peace deal conditions laid out Wednesday by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that were perceived to be disadvantageous to Ukraine’s negotiating position. Hegseth declined to stand by those conditions when questioned about them yesterday, saying that “everything is on the table” regarding ending the war. Also yesterday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told the Wall Street Journal that Washington would consider sending U.S. troops to Ukraine if Moscow did not negotiate in good faith.

 

U.S.-India commitments. The United States approved the extradition to India of a man accused of helping to plan terror attacks in Mumbai in 2008, Trump said after his meeting yesterday with Modi. Tahawwur Rana has been serving a U.S. prison sentence for supporting a Pakistan-based extremist group and plotting against a Danish newspaper. A joint U.S.-India statement called on Pakistan to prevent its territory from being used for cross-border extremism, a charge Pakistan denies. The statement also laid out a goal of doubling U.S.-India trade to $500 billion by the end of the decade and deepening bilateral defense ties. 

 

Mexico’s booming asylum applications. Amid Trump’s clampdown on people seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, more than three times as many migrants tried to apply for asylum in Mexico last month as the monthly average last year, an unnamed international official told the Associated Press. The country has a large asylum backlog: while 78,975 people applied for asylum last year, its system is only able to process a few hundred applications per day.

 

UNICEF reports DRC sexual violence spike. Health facilities in a conflict-torn region of the Democratic of Congo (DRC) reported 572 rape cases during the week ending February 2, 170 of which involved children, a top United Nations Childrens’ Fund (UNICEF) official said. That’s up from an average of 95 cases reported per week last year. Armed men, suspected to be from both sides to the conflict, were responsible, the official said, calling for fighters to “immediately cease and prevent grave rights violations against children.” A spokesperson for M23 fighters denied they participated in any rapes, and the Wall Street Journal could not immediately reach a Congolese government spokesperson for comment.

 

Syria’s message to armed groups. Nonstate groups should lay down their weapons in order to be able to take part in a national conference on the country’s future, an official committee said yesterday. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces is a holdout group that has not yet agreed to merge into the new Syrian government, though talks are ongoing. Meanwhile across the border, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is exploring the possibility of peace talks with the Kurds.

 

China’s top diplomat in London. The foreign ministers of China and the United Kingdom (UK) revived a channel for strategic dialogue that had been unused since 2018, when ties chilled. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the discussion “constructive” though the two countries “do not always see eye to eye,” while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that “under the current situation,” the countries should jointly advocate for multilateralism, free trade, and peace.

 

Munich car ramming. German authorities arrested an Afghan man after he drove a car into a crowd in Munich yesterday, injuring more than thirty people. The attack comes shortly before a German election in which immigration has been a focus. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the perpetrator should be returned to his home country and that the German government would deport noncitizens who commit “crimes of this kind.” The suspect had legal residence in Germany, authorities said.


Sudan-Iran cooperation. The countries will carry out joint projects in mining, banking, and livestock, Sudan’s foreign ministry said after a visit from an Iranian delegation. Bilateral relations were paused after Sudan sent troops to fight Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen in 2015 but have improved since 2023. Tehran now backs the Sudanese army’s fight against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Ensuring Ukraine’s Long-Term Security

A multilayered defense system could prevent another invasion while being financially sustainable for Ukraine’s allies, CFR expert Paul B. Stares and the Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon write in this Center for Preventive Action report.

Fortifications built by the Ukrainian army stretch across a field near the front line outside Kupiansk, Ukraine. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

The Weekend Ahead

  • African Union leaders hold a summit in Ethiopia.

     

  • Germany holds a four-way televised pre-election debate.

     

  • The International Energy Agency publishes its 2025 report on world electricity markets.

Shifting Gears in the U.S. Auto Market

The United States is the world’s largest car-importing country. Tariffs on Mexican imports could further elevate the comparative advantage of Chinese electric vehicle makers at the cost of U.S. automakers, writes CFR expert Zongyuan Zoe Liu.

A view of the GM logo on a water tank at the Ramos Arizpe plant of General Motors, which exports vehicles to Canada and the U.S., in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, January 29, 2025. (Daniel Becerril/Reuters)

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