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Edited by: James Desio and Hannah Bowen

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the emerging insurgency in Syria, global energy consumption from carbon-free sources, and plummeting math scores for eighth graders. 

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1. Syria’s Emerging Insurgency

Topline: The new Syrian government tamped down a round of violence from Assad loyalists along Syria’s coastal region this week. Alawite insurgent leaders launched an offensive in the coastal region, triggering sectarian violence and presenting new challenges for the interim government and their security forces. AEI’s Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War map the areas where violence has erupted.

• Although the insurgents have retreated back into hiding, they have continued to repeatedly attack government forces.

New Landscape: With Assad loyalists well positioned to lead further insurgent movements, Damascus likely faces a difficult campaign ahead to constrain insurgents who wish to instigate disruption for the new government. 

“The insurgents have gone back into hiding but have repeatedly attacked government forces since March 7, highlighting their enduring presence. The sectarian killing that occurred between March 5 and 7 will inflame the fighting and make it harder to defeat this insurgency.”—Brian Carter

2. A Dose of Energy Realism 

Topline: Despite the world spending $9 trillion on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, and other forms of clean energy, energy consumption from carbon-free sources is growing linearly. AEI’s Roger Pielke Jr. tracks the proportion of global energy consumption from all carbon-free sources. Since 2012, the proportion of energy consumption from carbon-free sources has increased from about 14 percent to only about 18 percent.

• Assessing JPMorgan’s 2025 annual energy report, Pielke highlights that solar power is only expected to account for 4.5 percent of global energy production by 2027, the process of electrifying energy remains slow, emissions targets remain out of reach, and the Trump administration’s trade war with Canada threatens to upend North America’s energy dominance.

• Given the current linear trend, the world is projected to hit 100 percent carbon-free sometime after 2200. Pielke concludes that human prosperity will remain connected to natural gas and fossil fuels for years to come. 

3. Plummeting Math Scores 

Topline: The 2024 National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) results indicate worsening trends for US student achievement. AEI’s Mark Schneider analyzes the data comparing students who meet NAEP’s "proficiency" level against those who meet NAEP’s "basic" level. 

What’s the Difference? “Proficiency” means students have demonstrated competency over challenging subject matter, whereas “basic” indicates only partial mastery of fundamental knowledge required to reach “proficiency.”

The Great Divide: 2024 data show that the percentage of eighth-grade students below the basic level in mathematics is 11 points higher than the percentage of students at or above the proficient level. The percentage of students below the basic level has been increasing since 2019.

What Comes Next? The current approach to education does not appear to be working as test scores continue to fall. Schneider writes state leaders cannot dismiss 2024 NAEP scores—instead, they should look to improve their schools’ practices.

“The NAEP results make clear that American students have failed to bounce back despite the infusion of over $180 billion in federal money aimed at “rescuing” our education system from the pandemic’s worst effects.”—Mark Schneider

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