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By Ben Mannes
Philadelphia’s local politicians took a victory lap in the media, touting stats that the city’s 2024 homicide rate dropped to the lowest point it has been in a decade. The media has covered this as a decrease in violent crime, noting the largest drop in gun violence of all major U.S. cities but is the 50 percent drop in murders from three years ago due to increasing public safety, or better medicine at the city’s hospitals?
In the press, Krasner touted his funding of nonprofit anti-violence groups across the city for their work to help prevent crime. “We’re talking about sparing a life every day, every day because of the incredibly important work that is done at many different levels with prevention, with enforcement,” Krasner said Monday, Dec. 30, 2024. “That, frankly, is a surprise all by itself because we’re the brokest to the ten largest cities,” continued Krasner.
In the first month and a half of 2025, the downward trend in murders continues with 22 homicides YTD, showing a 35 percent decrease. However, despite the drop in murder statistics, there have been more than 1,281 nonfatal violent crimes reported by police so far this year, nearly a 49 percent increase. So what explains this sharp contrast?
Why It Matters. In Philadelphia, recent crime statistics illustrate this phenomenon. As of February 6, 2025, the city reported 22 homicides, reflecting an 18.52 percent year-to-date decrease. However, during the same period, total violent crimes increased by 48.13 percent, with 1,151 incidents reported. This disparity indicates that while fewer violent encounters are resulting in death, the overall occurrence of violent incidents has risen.
The shift presents a complex challenge. The reduction in homicide rates may create a false sense of security, leading the public and policymakers to believe that violent crime is decreasing overall. In reality, the prevalence of violent incidents remains high, but the outcomes have changed due to medical interventions.
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