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Daily News Brief

March 12, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the results of U.S.-Ukraine talks regarding the war with Russia, as well as...

  • New tariffs on U.S.-bound aluminum and steel 

  • Greenland’s parliamentary election

  • Reverse migratory flows in Panama

Top of the Agenda

The United States restored military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv approved a Washington-endorsed truce proposal. Yesterday’s talks in Saudi Arabia yielded a lengthy joint statement and were a reversal in tone from the Oval Office meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump that broke down last month. Ukraine agreed to a thirty-day cease-fire, if Russia agrees as well. A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson did not directly comment on the proposal, saying Moscow expected to be briefed by U.S. officials in the coming days about the conversation in Saudi Arabia.

 

The details. The U.S. and Ukrainian envoys discussed not only a potential truce but also longer-term visions for peace.

  • The interim cease-fire would see a halt to “missile, drone, and bomb attacks, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line,” Zelenskyy posted on X.
  • The U.S. and Ukrainian delegations spoke about the importance of humanitarian relief in the peace process and truce, including prisoner exchanges, releases of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children, the joint statement said.
  • They also discussed “substantive details” on an end to the war, including long-term security guarantees, said U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. He did not specify what those guarantees might be.
  • No deal was announced on the joint development of Ukraine’s mineral resources, though negotiators said their presidents had agreed to conclude it “as soon as possible.”

Implications and reactions. The restoration of U.S. military aid gave Ukraine access again to targeting and defense capabilities that it had come to rely on before the Trump administration’s freeze last week. As the world waits for Russia’s response, U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials praised the outcome of yesterday’s talks.

  • Zelenskyy called the cease-fire proposal “a positive step,” while Trump said “I think the cease-fire is very important. If we can get Russia to do it, that’ll be great.”
  • French President Emmanuel Macron said he “welcome[d] the progress made” during the talks, especially regarding a potential truce. Macron met yesterday with armed forces chiefs from more than thirty countries to discuss the monitoring of a potential cease-fire.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Macron, and United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer all said that the ball is now in Russia’s court.
“If Putin says no to the U.S. cease-fire demand, this might drive a small wedge between Trump and Putin, and it will reveal that the Kremlin has been the real obstacle to peace all along,” CFR expert Max Boot writes on Substack. “At a minimum, today’s agreement will help Ukraine in the short term; turning the intelligence sharing back on is particularly important to allow Ukraine to target Russian depots and [headquarters] and to protect its own cities.”

Trump’s Aluminum and Steel Tariffs

Fresh U.S. tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports seek to curb China’s growing dominance in global trade. Six charts show the tariffs’ potential economic effects, CFR’s Shannon K. O’Neil and Julia Huesa write in this article.

A worker welds a steel tube at HCC, a company that uses parts to make combines, at the factory in Mendota, Illinois, U.S., February 21, 2025. (Vincent Alban/Reuters)

Across the Globe

U.S. aluminum and steel tariffs. Overnight, the Trump administration enacted 25 percent levies on all aluminum and steel products entering the United States. The total 2024 import value of products hit by the tariffs was more than $147 billion, according to the census and the U.S. International Trade Commission. Yesterday, Trump backed off a threat to make the new tariffs 50 percent on Canadian aluminum and steel after Ontario’s premier agreed to walk back a tax on U.S.-bound electricity. The European Union (EU) announced retaliatory tariffs today on some $28.3 billion worth of U.S. goods, while some countries such as the UK refrained from enacting countermeasures.

 

Duterte in The Hague. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was flown to the Netherlands-based headquarters of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued a warrant for his arrest for “murder as a crime against humanity.” An investigation into Duterte at the ICC is focused on his war on drugs and accuses him of being responsible for extrajudicial killings. Duterte’s lawyer said the ICC lacked jurisdiction for the arrest, which ICC judges and current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. dispute. 

 

Migrants reverse course in Panama. Amid asylum restrictions in the United States, the number of migrants heading north across the Colombia-Panama border dwindled last month to 408. That’s down from more than 20,000 per month for much of 2024. In the meantime, 2,200 migrants entered Panama moving south this year, Panama’s president said late last month.

 

EU seeks antibiotic self-reliance. EU leadership unveiled proposed guidelines yesterday to lead member countries to buy more pharmaceuticals domestically. Currently, countries in the bloc rely heavily on drugs from China and India. The proposal offers subsidies for local production and encourages member states to use local procurement requirements and make purchases based on factors other than price.

 

Opposition victory in Greenland. The island’s center-right Demokraatik Party, which advocates for a gradual move toward independence from Denmark, won yesterday’s election. They earned around 30 percent of votes, according to near-complete results. Another opposition party favoring more immediate independence was on course to earn almost 25 percent of the vote. Demokraatik leader Jens Frederik Nielsen said the party would “enter into negotiations with everyone” as “Greenland needs us to stand together in a time of great interest from outside.”

 

New talks between Israel, Lebanon. Delegations from Israel and Lebanon met with U.S. and French mediators Monday for preliminary talks over points of conflict including their land border, the Israeli prime minister’s office said. U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus said the ongoing negotiations will also weigh the future of Israeli military outposts in Lebanon. In the short term, the talks are a positive sign for the continuation of the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, Bloomberg reported.

 

Train hijacked in Pakistan. Separatist militants in Balochistan province claimed responsibility for hijacking a train yesterday with more than four hundred people on board. The separatists said they sought a prisoner exchange with Pakistani authorities. Pakistani security forces began a rescue operation, and state media reported today that nearly two hundred people had been freed. The government said its forces had killed at least thirty militants, while the militant group said it killed more than thirty off-duty security personnel on the train. 


Seven countries meet WHO air standards. Almost every country in the world had an average air quality last year that was worse than recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), according to Swiss monitoring company IQAir. It flagged disparities within countries and some progress: overall air pollution in China and India improved last year. But data gaps in global air quality statistics appear poised to grow. Some developing countries have for years relied on air quality monitoring at U.S. diplomatic outposts, but the U.S. State Department recently closed its monitoring program, citing budget cuts. 

Global Health Agencies and Supply Chain Mapping

Global health agencies can teach governments valuable lessons about drug supply risks and the importance of mapping upstream supply chains, CFR expert Prashant Yadav writes for Think Global Health.

Medicines for HIV-positive patients are seen at a Doctors Without Borders-Holland clinic, in Yangon, Myanmar on February 21, 2012. (Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters)

The Day Ahead

  • Belize holds general elections.

  • NASA and SpaceX launch astronauts to the International Space Station.

  • Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers begin meeting in Quebec.

  • Trump meets with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin at the White House.

The Implications of Greenland’s Independence

Climate change is increasing sea navigability and fueling geopolitical competition in the Arctic. An independent Greenland could play an important role in years to come, Joseph Wehmeyer writes in this In Brief.

Greenland's flag flies in Igaliku settlement, Greenland, July 5, 2024. (Ritzau Scanpix/Reuters)
 

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