Russia and Iran “align positions” on nuclear program amid potential signs of discord
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi and President Massoud Pezeshkian on February 25 to “align positions” around Iran’s nuclear program, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. Lavrov previously stated that Russia still supported diplomatic means of resolving the issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the monitoring of its compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The meeting in Tehran came one day before the IAEA distributed a report to its Board of Governors, which showed that Iran had made major strides in the installation of new cascades of advanced centrifuges, expanding its enrichment throughput capacity, and accelerating the rate of accumulation of 60% highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is near weapons grade.
Subsequently, on March 4, press reporting indicated that President Vladimir Putin had offered for Russia to mediate between Iran and the United States on the nuclear issue. The following day, Russian officials said that the Iranian nuclear issue would be on the agenda for U.S.-Russian meetings in the near future. Hardliners in Iran are likely to be suspicious of Russian motives, given the moves toward rapprochement with the U.S. The resignation of Pezeshkian’s reformist Vice President Javad Zarif on March 2 under pressure from hardline elements in Tehran suggests that Iran may be retreating from its recent indications of openness to negotiations with the U.S. on the nuclear issue.
President Putin calls Xi to reassure on ties after signaling rapprochement with Trump
Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Xi Jinping of China on February 24 to discuss bilateral ties following a U.S.-Russian meeting in Riyadh, which carried strong indications of a U.S.-Russia rapprochement. The call, along with the very positive language attributed to Xi in Chinese media coverage, appeared intended to dispel any speculation that the “no limits” partnership between Russia and China would be undermined by a warming of U.S.-Russia relations. Trump’s overtures toward Putin have fueled speculation in many quarters that the U.S. is trying to split Russia from China, a country which many in the U.S. view as its main strategic rival. For his part, President Xi told Putin that he was pleased with Russia’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine. He reiterated his call for an international conference on ending the war, echoing a proposal he had made alongside President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil during a visit last year. A few days later, on February 27, Chinese officials issued a very harsh public response to comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an interview with Breitbart in which he suggested that Russia was a “junior partner” beholden to China and could escape that status.
North Korean missiles appear to be gaining in accuracy
Short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) manufactured by North Korea and used by Russia against Ukraine appear to have improved in accuracy since late December, compared to previous North Korean K-23 and K-24 missiles. Over 20 North Korean SRBMs used by Russia against Ukraine during that period have hit within 50-100 meters of their intended targets, which suggests that North Korea has been able to make improvements based on recent battlefield experience, with Russian assistance, or both. Earlier Russian use of these missiles had shown a circular error probability of 1-3 kilometers. Satellite photos indicate that North Korea is expanding the complex that manufactures these missiles, and the greater accuracy could make them more attractive to potential export buyers. These missiles carry a large payload of about a ton, and the new accuracy level makes them highly effective for striking fixed targets.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China meet to mark two years of normalization
Deputy foreign ministers from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China met in Riyadh to discuss enhancing cooperation, coinciding with the two-year anniversary of the Beijing Agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations and refrain from certain antagonistic behaviors. Their statement emphasized mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference in one another’s internal affairs. In 2023, both countries took mutual steps to cease support for political opposition groups, sectarian groups, and media outlets that had previously been sources of friction. They also held the inaugural meeting of a new Iranian-Saudi Joint Media Committee and agreed to pursue a treaty to eliminate double-taxation, aiming to facilitate enhanced business ties between the two countries.
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