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Daily News Brief

February 19, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the state of talks on a second phase of the Gaza cease-fire, as well as...

  • Europe’s latest emergency meeting on Ukraine
  • The coup plot charges against Brazil’s former president
  • India and Qatar’s plans to deepen relations

Top of the Agenda

Israel has agreed to start negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal. The announcement from Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar came as Hamas said it would release three living hostages ahead of schedule on Saturday, a move that mediators said was designed to get negotiations moving. Phase two talks were meant to begin on February 4—but the truce saw a near-breakdown earlier this month as both sides accused each other of violating its terms.


Setting the stage for phase two. During the first part of the truce, Gazans began to return to what is left of their homes and Israel has allowed increased aid into the territory. A previously floated outline for the second part of the truce involved the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and Hamas’s release of the rest of its hostages. But, there is no guarantee that Israel and Hamas will get there. As all sides prepare for new talks…

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has swapped his lead negotiator for phase two, choosing close political ally and Israeli strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer instead of the head of the Mossad intelligence service, who led previous negotiation rounds, media including Israel’s Channel 12 News and CNN reported.

  • A Hamas spokesperson yesterday said that in phase two, the group is ready to release all of its remaining hostages at once in exchange for a permanent truce and full withdrawal of Israeli forces.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Gaza on Sunday with Netanyahu, after which Netanyahu appeared to endorse U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to resettle Gazans and have the U.S. take over the territory. Rubio discussed Gaza and other issues on Monday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after which both affirmed their support for a cease-fire. Today, he met with United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who said the UAE rejects the potential displacement of Palestinians from their land.

A new point of tension. Palestinians and Arab countries continue to voice alarm about President Donald Trump’s proposal of expelling Gazans, which international legal scholars say would be a war crime if enacted. In response, Egypt is developing its own plan to rebuild Gaza that would keep Palestinians living there, unnamed Egyptian, Arab, and Western officials told the Associated Press. Arab countries are planning to hold an emergency summit on Gaza on March 4.

 

Rubio has said he is up to hearing alternative proposals to Trump’s plan for Gaza. “If the Arab countries have a better plan, then that’s great,” he said last Thursday. Meanwhile, both Netanyahu and Rubio said Sunday that Hamas should be “eliminated.”

“Moving two million Palestinians out of Gaza and assuming ownership of the area will end any chance of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel; break the Abraham Accords, Trump’s first term foreign policy achievement; undermine the Egypt-Israel and Jordan-Israel peace treaties, which are pillars of U.S. policy in the region; and re-empower Iran at a moment when it is vulnerable. It would also entangle the United States in a regional conflict—an outcome no one wants, especially Trump,” CFR expert Steven A. Cook writes in Foreign Policy.

The Pope and International Relations

The pope has geopolitical and cultural influence. In this December webinar, CFR’s Irina A. Faskianos discussed the role of the Catholic Church in international relations with Peter Casarella and Cecilia González-Andrieu.

A bird is seen on the statue of the late Pope John Paul II, outside the Gemelli Hospital, where Pope Francis is admitted to continue treatment for his ongoing respiratory tract infection, in Rome, Italy, February 19, 2025. (Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters)

Across the Globe

European consultations on Ukraine. France is hosting another emergency meeting of European leaders today regarding their policy on the war in Ukraine. European countries are working to define a joint position after the Trump administration’s move to talk directly with Russia. Yesterday, Trump appeared to falsely blame Ukraine for the war with Russia, saying “you should have never started it.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Trump was pushing “a lot of disinformation coming from Russia.”

 

Potential U.S. car, chip, pharma tariffs. Trump said yesterday he is considering imposing duties of around 25 percent on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals as soon as April 2. He added that he wanted to give firms the chance to move their plants to the United States to avoid the tariffs. For semiconductor chips and drugs, the rate could go “substantially higher over the course of a year,” Trump said. He did not give details on potential exemptions.

 

Brazil’s coup plot charges. The country’s attorney general charged former President Jair Bolsonaro with trying to hold on to power after losing the 2022 election through attempting to annul the vote, disband courts, and assassinate the president-elect. Thirty-three others were also charged in the indictment, which moves the case to the country’s top court. Bolsonaro could face at least twelve years in prison if convicted. He denied the allegations, calling them an attempt to silence his political movement. 

 

The Pope’s pneumonia diagnosis. Pope Francis, 88, has been hospitalized since last week. He has pneumonia in both lungs and test results suggest “a complex picture,” the Vatican said. Francis is one of the oldest popes in the Catholic Church’s history. Well-wishers gathered outside the hospital to pray for his recovery. His public events have been canceled through Sunday.

 

Attacks and negotiations in Sudan. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied groups are preparing to sign a political charter setting up a parallel government, an advisor to the RSF’s leader said. As the charter was delayed this week to allow for more talks with a potential member, Sudanese officials and rights groups denounced a series of RSF attacks that they said killed hundreds of people in the southern White Nile state. Reuters could not immediately reach the RSF for comment.

 

Taliban visit to Japan. Officials from Afghanistan’s Taliban government are meeting with Japanese officials on a multi-day visit to the country, Japan’s cabinet secretary said. He added that Tokyo would urge the group to respect human rights. The visit is part of the Taliban’s gradual reengagement with some in the international community following their 2021 takeover. The private Japanese groups coordinating the visit aim to raise awareness about conditions faced by Afghan women and children.

 

CIA drone flights over Mexico. The agency has increased its surveillance flights over Mexico in recent weeks, unnamed U.S. officials told multiple news outlets. The Trump administration has promised stepped-up efforts to combat Mexican cartels and fentanyl labs. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the flights were part of “coordination” between the two countries.

 

Qatari investments in India. Doha plans to invest $10 billion across Indian sectors including technology, manufacturing, and logistics, the two countries said in a joint statement. New Delhi also said the countries are exploring a free trade agreement. It was the first time a Qatari Emir had visited India in ten years. 

Famine in Sudan

The United States’ recent declaration of genocide in Sudan could raise awareness of the tragedies resulting from the conflict. For Think Global Health, Tim Bishop and Christina Wille detail the current state of hunger and access to aid in the country.

Women from community kitchens distribute meals to those who are affected by conflict and extreme hunger and out of reach of international aid efforts, in Omdurman, Sudan, on July 27, 2024. (Mazin Alrasheed/Reuters)

The Day Ahead

  • UN nuclear energy czar Rafael Grossi wraps up his visit to Japan, where he reviewed disposal of treated waste from the Fukushima disaster.

     

  • Caribbean Community heads of state begin a summit in Barbados.

     

  • EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas visits South Africa.

Trump’s Misguided Policy Toward South Africa                             

The U.S.-South Africa relationship needs a rethink, writes CFR expert Michelle Gavin. But President Trump’s current approach is strengthening the hand of some of the most destructive and anti-American forces in South African society. 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa briefs the media on South Africa's G20 presidency for 2025 at the parliament in Cape Town, South Africa on December 3, 2024. (Esa Alexander/Reuters)
 

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