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Even before he was sworn in to his second term, President Donald Trump’s public musings about acquiring Greenland — by purchase or by force — left ordinary Americans and elites alike puzzled by the seemingly erratic attention being paid to the Arctic island.
But after the confusion (and mocking) subsided, Americans quickly learned of Greenland’s strategic importance to U.S. interests [ [link removed] ]. John Bolton, a fierce Trump critic, explained that, despite his criticisms of Trump’s method, Greenland had a direct impact on critical national security interests that affect “Canada, the United States, the entire NATO Alliance.” Let me be more blunt: Greenland, and the Arctic more generally, is a hotly-contested region in the rapidly expanding and escalating great power rivalry between the US and China [ [link removed] ].
Greenland has been historically seen as strategically important by America for several reasons, most importantly because it geographic location. During WWII, the U.S. pre-emptively seized the territory after Germany conquered Denmark to prevent the Nazis from using it as a U-boat base. Even today, the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap is seen by NATO and American analysts as a strategic chokepoint for the Russian navy. Greenland’s is also home to Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Force Base) and plays a big role in space surveillance and early warning systems to detect ballistic missile launches.
Mike Pompeo highlighted the region’s importance in 2019 while he was US Secretary of State. He pointed out that receding ice could open up new sea lanes to commercial and military passage. These new routes, Pompeo noted, could trim 20 days off a trip between North America and Asia. In addition to sea lanes, receding ice could also lead to a natural resource bonanza. Some estimates point to $35 trillion worth of oil and natural gas reserves in the Arctic. Let’s not forget that China announced a “polar silk route” in 2018 explicitly to exploit the economic and resource potential of the region.
The list of known mineral resources in Greenland is long, and includes zinc, lead, gold, iron ore, diamonds, copper, and uranium as well as the critical and rare-earth commodities needed to power electric cars and many of our devices. Greenland needs help developing these resources though, and for now the island country is heavily reliant on the public sector, fishing, and the Danish government. Meanwhile, the US is heavily reliant on China for the processing of rare earth metals and minerals.
The idea of the U.S. buying the island isn’t as crazy as some suggest [ [link removed] ]. Not only is the U.S. no stranger to large purchases of territory (the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska come readily to mind), this also isn’t the first time the U.S. eyed Greenland. Secretary of State William Seward had his eyes on it in 1868, a land swap was proposed by the U.S. ambassador to Denmark in 1910, and in 1946, Harry Truman tried to buy it for $100 million in gold bars. Even as late as 1955, the Pentagon proposed acquiring the island in a memo to President Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Not only is the U.S. no stranger to large purchases of territory (the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska come readily to mind), this also isn’t the first time the U.S. eyed Greenland.
So, how does Greenland feel about this? Interestingly, Greenland has had an independence movement that has been gaining momentum. The island was granted home rule in 1979, then expanded its autonomy and made Greenlandic the official language in 2009. And before the pandemic, in 2019, a survey showed that 68 percent of Greenlanders supported independence, with 38 percent saying that they would vote for independence right away. Last year, the island officially declared independence as its ultimate goal and on March 11 of this year, Greenlanders are heading to the polls in an election that will have independence as its main issue.
One speedbump on Greenland’s road to independence is concern about the economic impact. Denmark still heavily subsidizes the world’s largest island with a roughly $511 million block-grant, the equivalent of 20 percent of Greenland’s GDP. But Trump’s interest has emboldened those seeking independence for the island. Could greater economic ties with the U.S. give Greenlanders the confidence to pull away from Denmark? And might the U.S. gain a loyal security partner and access to natural resources, while simultaneously boxing out the Russians and Chinese?
For precedent for such a scenario, look no further than Teddy Roosevelt and Panama. After failing to come to terms with Colombia to build a canal in what was then the Colombian territory of Panama, the Rough Rider sent warships to back Panamanian independence in 1903; Roosevelt then cut a deal to build the Panama Canal with the newly independent country. It’s easy to imagine a similar scenario in the North Atlantic: The U.S. recognizes an independent Greenland, helps develop its economy, and in the process, de facto draws the island nation into the American economic and security sphere.
While these opening gambits have some in a frenzy about an aggressively expanding America, Trump may be telegraphing the opposite. The United States seems to be pulling back from foreign entanglements and focusing on America’s vital interests in the Western Hemisphere and the Arctic. And in that light, Trump’s comments about Greenland, Canada, and even the Panama Canal are not illogical or ill-conceived. We may be witnessing the rapid emergence of the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, something I’ve called the Trump Doctrine, in which the United States makes it clear to Russia, China, and Iran that the Western Hemisphere is off-limits.
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. He’s currently the Chairman and CEO of Goodwell Foods, a manufacturer of private label frozen pizza. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World [ [link removed] ], Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence [ [link removed] ] and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst [ [link removed] ]. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.
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