Team -
Let me introduce myself: My name is Tara, and I'm the Director of Data & Analytics at the DLCC. After pouring over hundreds of data points and examining trends across the country, I wanted to reach out to talk about some recent developments that caught my eye.
Donald Trump and national Republicans' large monetary investment in campaigns at the state level has eroded Democrats' lead in the race to win majorities in legislatures across the country. This is a serious situation for Democrats nationwide and for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC).
The numbers show that the GOP's current financial advantage has allowed their party to hire a sizable number of organizers and to pay people to go door-to-door posing as volunteers in hundreds of communities. This growth has led to a high number of contacts, solidifying a base of voters who will turn out for Republicans on Election Day.
The trend is most prominent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia - three states critical to the presidential campaign and to our efforts to flip a number of state legislatures from red to blue. Because of the uptick in involvement by Donald Trump and Republicans, I am changing the rating for Virginia to "Toss Up" and both Michigan and Pennsylvania to "Lean Republican."
The Tara Ticker (July to August):
- Virginia: Lean Democrat --> Toss Up
- Michigan: Toss Up --> Lean Republican
- Pennsylvania: Toss Up --> Lean Republican
But as we've seen in the past, Democrats can reverse Republican gains if grassroots donors pitch in and join the fight. The historic 2018 election cycle demonstrated that a unified grassroots base of financial support can defeat the Republican campaign machine, even one aided by Donald Trump and funded by millions of dollars in special interest money.
Our next big grassroots test is this November in Virginia, where Republicans have controlled the state legislature for decades.
We know from analyzing past election results that it will take the largest voter contact operation in the history of the Commonwealth to flip the four seats we need to win majorities in both the state House and state Senate.
Our analysis also shows that we are lagging behind our projections. However, if 174 donors step up right now, we will be on solid footing for the November elections.
We must hit this fundraising goal to continue our high level of organizing and to reach the numbers that will lead to a victory.
There is no time to spare. We cannot let up for a minute. Now is the time to grow our resources to reverse our win probability numbers and maintain them until the end of the campaign.
Please pitch in whatever you can to the DLCC today.
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Yours,
Tara Brosnan
Director of Data & Analytics, DLCC
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