John,
As of today, March 4th, Congress has 218 Republicans and 215 Democrats, with two vacancies.
The two vacant seats are Florida's 6th and 1st Congressional Districts. The 6th district was held by Michael Waltz who is now Trump’s National Security Advisor and the 1st was previously held by Matt Gaetz.
An additional vacancy is expected in New York's 21st Congressional District, which is held by Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who is expected to resign once confirmed as Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations. That means the GOP majority drops down to 217.
With that in mind here’s the math for how a democratic house in 2025 is possible:
|