Email
Recession Signals & Tariff Wars Shake Investors (Weekly Cheat Sheet)
| From | Irving Wilkinson <[email protected]> |
| Subject | Recession Signals & Tariff Wars Shake Investors (Weekly Cheat Sheet) |
| Date | March 3, 2025 8:42 PM |
Links have been removed from this email. Learn more in the FAQ.
Links have been removed from this email. Learn more in the FAQ.
View image: ([link removed])
Follow image link: ([link removed])
Caption:
Good afternoon,
The last week of February was definitely a mixed bag, wouldn’t you say? The major indices took a bit of a breather, almost as if they realized they’d been sprinting for too long. The **Nasdaq Composite** had the roughest time, sliding 3.5% and dipping into negative territory for the year. Ouch!
The **S&P 500** wasn’t far behind, giving back 1.0%. Now, the **Dow Jones Industrial Average** showed some resilience, managing a 1.0% gain, thanks to some late-week buying. I was almost reaching for my lucky rabbit’s foot there! It pays to remember what investing means and what your goals are.
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
The disproportionate price action in the **Nasdaq**, compared to the other major indices, really tells the story. Increased selling pressure on mega-cap stocks was the culprit. The **Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (MGK)**, for instance, declined 2.7% this week.
**NVIDIA (NVDA)** was a major drag in that respect, after its earnings report failed to live up to sky-high expectations. Shares plummeted 7.1% this week. When a stock’s been soaring like **NVIDIA** had, even a minor slip-up can send investors running for the exits. It’s a classic case of “what goes up must come down,” though I’m certainly not writing them off for the long term. Remember what Keynes said: “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
This week, the **“buy-the-dip”** strategy, which had been** working like a charm earlier in the month, hit a wall.** This fueled the unwinding of momentum trades, which was another factor contributing to the selling pressure in **NVIDIA**. The initial triggers for the negative bias were inflation worries and growth concerns rooted in proposed tariffs and efforts to cut government spending, along with some soft economic data.
## **Bonds and Treasuries**
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
Treasuries saw a significant rally as investors sought safety amid growth and tariff concerns. The 10-year yield plummeted 19 basis points this week and a hefty 34 basis points in February, settling at 4.23%. The 2-year yield also followed suit, dropping 19 basis points this week, and 24 basis points this month, ending at 4.00%. A flight to safety, pure and simple.
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson, Editor
[AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed])
----------
## Week In Review
--------------------
## **US Highlights**
* **Recession Signal Flashing:** The yield curve inverted, signaling recession fears as the **Federal Reserve** projected a 1.5% GDP contraction in Q1. It’s like hearing thunder in the distance – it doesn’t necessarily mean a storm is brewing, but it’s a good idea to grab an umbrella, just in case.
* **Consumer Confidence Takes a Dive:** Consumer sentiment plunged to 98.3 in February, the worst since 2021. People are worried about inflation, tariffs, and the overall economy. When consumers start tightening their belts, it can have a ripple effect throughout the entire economy.
* **Housing Market Slump:** Pending home sales hit a record low in January, falling 4.6% from December. High mortgage rates and elevated prices are squeezing affordability, even with more inventory and price cuts. For many, the dream of homeownership feels further out of reach than ever.
* **Inflation Gauge Eases:** The **Fed’s** preferred inflation measure cooled to 2.6% in January, which is good news. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a June rate cut. After a long period of battling inflation, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
* **Trump and Zelenskyy Tensions:** A heated meeting between **President Trump** and **Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy** raised geopolitical concerns. You know, geopolitical tensions always add a layer of uncertainty to the markets.
* **Apple to Open AI Server Factory:** **Apple** plans to open an AI server factory in **Texas** as part of a $500B investment. The plan includes 20,000 new jobs and expanded R&D. **Apple’s** move signals a commitment to U.S. manufacturing, which is a positive sign for the economy.
* **Healthcare Price Transparency:** **President Trump** signs an order enforcing healthcare price transparency, which requires hospitals and insurers to disclose procedure costs, drug prices, and negotiated rates. This could lead to lower healthcare costs for consumers.
## **Global Highlights**
* **Trump’s Tariff Plans:** Tariffs on **Canada** and **Mexico** are set to proceed, risking trade tensions. Additionally, a 25% tariff for the **EU** is on the horizon, targeting cars and accusing the bloc of unfair trade.
* **India’s Economy Accelerates:** India’s economy accelerates with 6.2% growth in Q3 as manufacturing rebounds and government spending jumps 8.3%. India is a country to watch for global economic growth.
* **Germany’s Conservatives Win Election:** Germany’s conservatives win election as the economy struggles with **Friedrich Merz** poised to become chancellor. GDP shrank 0.2% in late 2024, adding pressure amid complex coalition talks. The new leadership could signal a shift in economic policy.
* **Tesla’s Sales Crash in Europe:** **Tesla’s** sales in Europe plummeted 45% in January, despite the overall BEV market surging 37%. Supply issues, bad publicity, and Model Y updates hurt demand as rivals gain ground in key markets. **Tesla** losing market share in Europe highlights the growing competition in the electric vehicle market.
* **Chinese Manufacturers Scramble:** Chinese manufacturers scramble as new U.S. tariffs spark panic, with some rushing to shift production to Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, **China** vows retaliation with countermeasures targeting key U.S. industries. The tariff situation remains tense, with both countries preparing for a potential trade war.
* **Alibaba to Invest in AI and Cloud:** **Alibaba** plans to invest over $52B in AI and cloud by 2028, surpassing its past decade’s spending. The move aims to boost growth, compete globally, and capitalize on **China’s** AI boom. This investment shows **Alibaba’s** commitment to remaining a leader in the technology space.
----------## Commodities & Crypto
### **Energy**
Oil prices managed to climb this week, which is a bit of a head-scratcher given all the
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
In the oil and energy sector, crude oil prices experienced a slight uptick. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at **$70.70 per barrel on Monday, February 24, marking a $0.30 increase.**
The natural gas market, however, saw a decline with the prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settling at $3.99 per MMBtu, down $0.24. This drop came despite elevated demand for natural gas, with electric power generation demand averaging 36.7 Bcf per day year-to-date, compared to 34.6 Bcf per day for the same period last year. LNG exports also increased, averaging 15 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 13.8 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
### **Metals**
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
The precious metals market, particularly gold, continued its strong performance. As of February 24, 2025, the price of** gold reached $2,950 per ounce, reflecting a substantial increase of over 25% in 2024.**
This surge was attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. Silver also performed well, with some analysts expecting it to outperform gold and potentially reach $36 an ounce. Platinum was projected to hit $1,200 an ounce, indicating a positive outlook for precious metals overall.
### **Crypto**
**Bitcoin (BTC)** is ending three weeks of consecutive decline and is back flirting with
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
In the cryptocurrency market, there were notable fluctuations. Bitcoin, which had been trading at $**60,000 on February 24, surged to $65,000 by March 3, with a 24-hour trading volume of $40 billion. **Ethereum also saw an increase, rising from $3,500 to $3,800 during the same period, with a trading volume of $20 billion.
The market sentiment shifted positively, with the fear and greed index moving from a neutral 50 to a greed level of 65, indicating increased market optimism. However, the market also experienced some volatility, with the BTC/USD trading pair seeing a 0.52% decrease over the week, reaching its lowest point of $64,750 on February 28.
## Calendar
Next week is packed with data releases, including the February jobs report on Friday. Keep an eye on purchasing managers’ data and factory and durable goods orders, too.
Major companies reporting earnings next week include:
* **CrowdStrike (CRWD)**
* **Broadcom (AVGO)**
* **Target (TGT)**
* **Costco Wholesale (COST)**
* **Kroger (KR)**
**Earnings Spotlight:**
* Monday, March 3 – **Okta (OKTA)**, **GitLab (GTLB)**, **AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)**
* Tuesday, March 4 – **CrowdStrike**, **Sea Ltd. (SE)**, **Target**, **AutoZone (AZO)**
* Wednesday, March 5 – **Marvell Technology (MRVL)**, **Veeva Systems (VEEV)**, **Zscaler (ZS)**
* Thursday, March 6 – **Broadcom**, **Costco Wholesale**, **Kroger**, **Burlington Stores (BURL)**
##
Copyright © 2025 [AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed]) All Rights Reserved | [AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed]) is a financial news publisher that does not offer any personal financial advice or advocate the sale or purchasing of any investment/security. Please contact us for any errors in stories by [clicking here]([link removed]). For more information, please read our full [disclaimer.]([link removed])
———
You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online:
[link removed]
Follow image link: ([link removed])
Caption:
Good afternoon,
The last week of February was definitely a mixed bag, wouldn’t you say? The major indices took a bit of a breather, almost as if they realized they’d been sprinting for too long. The **Nasdaq Composite** had the roughest time, sliding 3.5% and dipping into negative territory for the year. Ouch!
The **S&P 500** wasn’t far behind, giving back 1.0%. Now, the **Dow Jones Industrial Average** showed some resilience, managing a 1.0% gain, thanks to some late-week buying. I was almost reaching for my lucky rabbit’s foot there! It pays to remember what investing means and what your goals are.
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
The disproportionate price action in the **Nasdaq**, compared to the other major indices, really tells the story. Increased selling pressure on mega-cap stocks was the culprit. The **Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (MGK)**, for instance, declined 2.7% this week.
**NVIDIA (NVDA)** was a major drag in that respect, after its earnings report failed to live up to sky-high expectations. Shares plummeted 7.1% this week. When a stock’s been soaring like **NVIDIA** had, even a minor slip-up can send investors running for the exits. It’s a classic case of “what goes up must come down,” though I’m certainly not writing them off for the long term. Remember what Keynes said: “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
This week, the **“buy-the-dip”** strategy, which had been** working like a charm earlier in the month, hit a wall.** This fueled the unwinding of momentum trades, which was another factor contributing to the selling pressure in **NVIDIA**. The initial triggers for the negative bias were inflation worries and growth concerns rooted in proposed tariffs and efforts to cut government spending, along with some soft economic data.
## **Bonds and Treasuries**
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
Treasuries saw a significant rally as investors sought safety amid growth and tariff concerns. The 10-year yield plummeted 19 basis points this week and a hefty 34 basis points in February, settling at 4.23%. The 2-year yield also followed suit, dropping 19 basis points this week, and 24 basis points this month, ending at 4.00%. A flight to safety, pure and simple.
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson, Editor
[AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed])
----------
## Week In Review
--------------------
## **US Highlights**
* **Recession Signal Flashing:** The yield curve inverted, signaling recession fears as the **Federal Reserve** projected a 1.5% GDP contraction in Q1. It’s like hearing thunder in the distance – it doesn’t necessarily mean a storm is brewing, but it’s a good idea to grab an umbrella, just in case.
* **Consumer Confidence Takes a Dive:** Consumer sentiment plunged to 98.3 in February, the worst since 2021. People are worried about inflation, tariffs, and the overall economy. When consumers start tightening their belts, it can have a ripple effect throughout the entire economy.
* **Housing Market Slump:** Pending home sales hit a record low in January, falling 4.6% from December. High mortgage rates and elevated prices are squeezing affordability, even with more inventory and price cuts. For many, the dream of homeownership feels further out of reach than ever.
* **Inflation Gauge Eases:** The **Fed’s** preferred inflation measure cooled to 2.6% in January, which is good news. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a June rate cut. After a long period of battling inflation, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
* **Trump and Zelenskyy Tensions:** A heated meeting between **President Trump** and **Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy** raised geopolitical concerns. You know, geopolitical tensions always add a layer of uncertainty to the markets.
* **Apple to Open AI Server Factory:** **Apple** plans to open an AI server factory in **Texas** as part of a $500B investment. The plan includes 20,000 new jobs and expanded R&D. **Apple’s** move signals a commitment to U.S. manufacturing, which is a positive sign for the economy.
* **Healthcare Price Transparency:** **President Trump** signs an order enforcing healthcare price transparency, which requires hospitals and insurers to disclose procedure costs, drug prices, and negotiated rates. This could lead to lower healthcare costs for consumers.
## **Global Highlights**
* **Trump’s Tariff Plans:** Tariffs on **Canada** and **Mexico** are set to proceed, risking trade tensions. Additionally, a 25% tariff for the **EU** is on the horizon, targeting cars and accusing the bloc of unfair trade.
* **India’s Economy Accelerates:** India’s economy accelerates with 6.2% growth in Q3 as manufacturing rebounds and government spending jumps 8.3%. India is a country to watch for global economic growth.
* **Germany’s Conservatives Win Election:** Germany’s conservatives win election as the economy struggles with **Friedrich Merz** poised to become chancellor. GDP shrank 0.2% in late 2024, adding pressure amid complex coalition talks. The new leadership could signal a shift in economic policy.
* **Tesla’s Sales Crash in Europe:** **Tesla’s** sales in Europe plummeted 45% in January, despite the overall BEV market surging 37%. Supply issues, bad publicity, and Model Y updates hurt demand as rivals gain ground in key markets. **Tesla** losing market share in Europe highlights the growing competition in the electric vehicle market.
* **Chinese Manufacturers Scramble:** Chinese manufacturers scramble as new U.S. tariffs spark panic, with some rushing to shift production to Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, **China** vows retaliation with countermeasures targeting key U.S. industries. The tariff situation remains tense, with both countries preparing for a potential trade war.
* **Alibaba to Invest in AI and Cloud:** **Alibaba** plans to invest over $52B in AI and cloud by 2028, surpassing its past decade’s spending. The move aims to boost growth, compete globally, and capitalize on **China’s** AI boom. This investment shows **Alibaba’s** commitment to remaining a leader in the technology space.
----------## Commodities & Crypto
### **Energy**
Oil prices managed to climb this week, which is a bit of a head-scratcher given all the
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
In the oil and energy sector, crude oil prices experienced a slight uptick. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at **$70.70 per barrel on Monday, February 24, marking a $0.30 increase.**
The natural gas market, however, saw a decline with the prompt-month NYMEX natural gas settling at $3.99 per MMBtu, down $0.24. This drop came despite elevated demand for natural gas, with electric power generation demand averaging 36.7 Bcf per day year-to-date, compared to 34.6 Bcf per day for the same period last year. LNG exports also increased, averaging 15 Bcf per day month-to-date versus 13.8 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
### **Metals**
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
The precious metals market, particularly gold, continued its strong performance. As of February 24, 2025, the price of** gold reached $2,950 per ounce, reflecting a substantial increase of over 25% in 2024.**
This surge was attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. Silver also performed well, with some analysts expecting it to outperform gold and potentially reach $36 an ounce. Platinum was projected to hit $1,200 an ounce, indicating a positive outlook for precious metals overall.
### **Crypto**
**Bitcoin (BTC)** is ending three weeks of consecutive decline and is back flirting with
View image: ([link removed])
Caption:
In the cryptocurrency market, there were notable fluctuations. Bitcoin, which had been trading at $**60,000 on February 24, surged to $65,000 by March 3, with a 24-hour trading volume of $40 billion. **Ethereum also saw an increase, rising from $3,500 to $3,800 during the same period, with a trading volume of $20 billion.
The market sentiment shifted positively, with the fear and greed index moving from a neutral 50 to a greed level of 65, indicating increased market optimism. However, the market also experienced some volatility, with the BTC/USD trading pair seeing a 0.52% decrease over the week, reaching its lowest point of $64,750 on February 28.
## Calendar
Next week is packed with data releases, including the February jobs report on Friday. Keep an eye on purchasing managers’ data and factory and durable goods orders, too.
Major companies reporting earnings next week include:
* **CrowdStrike (CRWD)**
* **Broadcom (AVGO)**
* **Target (TGT)**
* **Costco Wholesale (COST)**
* **Kroger (KR)**
**Earnings Spotlight:**
* Monday, March 3 – **Okta (OKTA)**, **GitLab (GTLB)**, **AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)**
* Tuesday, March 4 – **CrowdStrike**, **Sea Ltd. (SE)**, **Target**, **AutoZone (AZO)**
* Wednesday, March 5 – **Marvell Technology (MRVL)**, **Veeva Systems (VEEV)**, **Zscaler (ZS)**
* Thursday, March 6 – **Broadcom**, **Costco Wholesale**, **Kroger**, **Burlington Stores (BURL)**
##
Copyright © 2025 [AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed]) All Rights Reserved | [AlphaBetaStock.com]([link removed]) is a financial news publisher that does not offer any personal financial advice or advocate the sale or purchasing of any investment/security. Please contact us for any errors in stories by [clicking here]([link removed]). For more information, please read our full [disclaimer.]([link removed])
———
You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online:
[link removed]
Message Analysis
- Sender: n/a
- Political Party: n/a
- Country: n/a
- State/Locality: n/a
- Office: n/a