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Edited by: James Desio and Hannah Bowen

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine how support for President Donald Trump is dividing the dating scene, 2024's record number of major hurricanes and what it means, and across-the-board declines in test scores.

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1. Trump’s Impact on American Dating

Topline: New data show an emerging gender divide among single voters, especially among college-educated singles. AEI’s Dan Cox analyzes dating preferences and finds that college-educated singles are less likely to date a Donald Trump supporter—especially college-educated single women.

Who’s Dating Whom?

• 73% of college educated single women are less likely to date a Trump supporter, compared with 44% of single women with a high school diploma or less.
• The split is much lower among men of different education levels, with 46% of single college-educated men and 31% of single men with a high school diploma or less saying they would not date a Trump supporter.

Relationship Status: Traditional dating norms are continuing to change, but growing political tensions may only further escalate dating tensions.

“Young singles today are forced to navigate a world where traditional dating norms are being redefined by technology and a rapidly changing culture. Many are not enjoying the experience.” —Dan Cox

2. A Record Year for Major Hurricanes

Topline: 2024 saw the most major hurricane landfalls on record, with a total of 11 major storms. AEI’s Roger Pielke analyzes last year’s hurricane data alongside past records, finding that the upward trend in Category 3+ hurricanes does not reflect an overall change in the global statistics of tropical cyclones or a change in climate.

The Fine Print:

• Two points show that the increase in major storms is not part of an identifiable trend:

• Globally consistent data have been available since only 1970—some ocean basins have a time series going back further with a better characterization of hurricane landfalls.
• Hurricane landfalls are just one subset of all tropical cyclones—most of which don’t make landfall.

The Bigger Picture: The time series shows there is no trend in either minor or major hurricane landfalls, and 24-month average number of all—landfalling or not—hurricanes shows last year was in range across historical variability.

“Bottom line—The record (tying) number of major hurricane landfalls of 2024 is notable, but it is not part of any identifiable trend in hurricane frequency or intensity. The lack of detection of such trends today is exactly what we would expect based on assessed climate research—also known as, the current scientific consensus.” —Roger Pielke

3. National Test Scores Plummet

Topline: National test scores are on the decline—and not just for students. AEI’s Nat Malkus finds that test scores are declining across the board, for adults as well as students. Data evaluating the adult population (age 16–64) over time show a steep decline in literacy and numeracy after 2017.

What’s Driving the Decline? These data reflect similar trends to student test scores, demonstrating that multiple generations face falling rates of achievement rates. Falling scores for adults indicate that the cause might fall outside of the classroom—pointing toward potential factors like screen time, phones, and social media.

“Accordingly, until these patterns no longer hold, policymakers, educators, and communities should test their theories for test score declines—those seen here and in future waves of test results—against these four critical factors.”—Nat Malkus

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