Friend,

We're sounding the alarm for help.

As you can see from the DLCC Analytics Alert below, our chances of winning legislative chambers across the country are declining. Tara Brosnan, our analytics expert, now rates Virginia as "Toss Up," and both Michigan and Pennsylvania as "Lean Republican."

Virginia is the most troubling for now. Every seat in the state House and state Senate is up for election this November, and only two seats separate us from majorities in each chamber.

But we're falling behind because Donald Trump, national Republicans and special interests are investing heavily to save the GOP and prevent a repeat of what happened in November 2017.

That's when we flipped a historic 15 seats in Virginia, and launched the national blue wave that eventually gave Democrats a majority in the House of Representatives and several state legislatures. In the 2018 election cycle, more than 400 Democrats flipped seats from red to blue.

Donald Trump and national Republicans know that they cannot afford another loss like that, so they've gotten heavily involved in state races.

Please help us regain our lead by making a donation of $25, $50 or even $100 today. Please help us hit our goal of just 250 more donors by our mid-month deadline tonight.

Donald Trump and Republicans have raised an astounding amount of money so far this year. Coming off his first 2020 reelection rally, the president raked in $24 million in one day – that's more than a million dollars every single hour. Together they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars to prepare for the campaign battle against us.

But the DLCC has something much more valuable than their billionaire backers and special interest money — we have YOU.

You and thousands of other grassroots donors have provided us the resources to flip hundreds of seats from red to blue and to elect a record number of women, candidates of color and LGBTQ candidates to office.

Thanks to you, we're making progress on the state level on critical issues like health care, education, gun safety and climate change. We're doing more to protect reproductive rights as a Supreme Court challenge to Roe v. Wade looms.

We cannot afford to take a step back in the 2020 election. Our country's future is at stake.

With your dedicated support, we can actually take another step forward. We only need to win a combined 20 seats to flip seven more legislative chambers. And we can win even more if you stay involved with the DLCC. Please pitch in whatever amount you can.

Thank you for all you've done in the past, and thank you for standing with the DLCC again today.

Thanks,

Jessica Post
President
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
 

From: Tara Brosnan, Director of Data & Analytics (via DLCC.org)
Subject: [UPDATE] 3 critical states:
Date: August 14, 2019

Jessica –

Let me introduce myself: My name is Tara, and I'm the Director of Data & Analytics at the DLCC. After pouring over hundreds of data points and examining trends across the country, I wanted to reach out to talk about some recent developments that caught my eye.

Donald Trump and national Republicans' large monetary investment in campaigns at the state level has eroded Democrats' lead in the race to win majorities in legislatures across the country. This is a serious situation for Democrats nationwide and for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC).

The numbers show that the GOP's current financial advantage has allowed their party to hire a sizable number of organizers and to pay people to go door-to-door posing as volunteers in hundreds of communities. This growth has led to a high number of contacts, solidifying a base of voters who will turn out for Republicans on Election Day.

The trend is most prominent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia — three states critical to the presidential campaign and to our efforts to flip a number of state legislatures from red to blue. Because of the uptick in involvement by Donald Trump and Republicans, I am changing the rating for Virginia to "Toss Up" and both Michigan and Pennsylvania to "Lean Republican."

But as we've seen in the past, Democrats can reverse Republican gains if grassroots donors pitch in and join the fight. The historic 2018 election cycle demonstrated that a unified grassroots base of financial support can defeat the Republican campaign machine, even one aided by Donald Trump and funded by millions of dollars in special interest money.

Our next big grassroots test is this November in Virginia, where Republicans have controlled the state legislature for decades.

We know from analyzing past election results that it will take the largest voter contact operation in the history of the Commonwealth to flip the four seats we need to win majorities in both the state house and state Senate.

Our analysis also shows that we are lagging behind our projections. However, if 472 donors step up before our mid-month deadline tomorrow, we will be on solid footing for the November elections.

We must hit this fundraising goal to continue our high level of organizing and to reach the numbers that will lead to a victory.

There is no time to spare. We cannot let up for a minute. Now is the time to grow our resources to reverse our win probability numbers and maintain them until the end of the campaign.

Friend, please pitch in whatever you can to the DLCC today.

Yours,

Tara Brosnan,
Director of Data & Analytics, DLCC