Is AI a disruptive technology, or simply an incremental one? We explore the pace and potential of disruptive tech.

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AI: disruptive or incremental innovation?

Is artificial intelligence actually a disruptive technology?

Leaders have suggested ([link removed] ) it could be as transformational as the printing press, electricity, and computers. Venture capitalists have poured buckets of money ([link removed] ) into AI startups. Last month, Nvidia, the chip maker, had a market cap that was larger ([link removed] ) than the GDP of 90% of the world’s countries. A survey of over 2,300 global executives ([link removed] ) found that 97% of them believe AI will be a game-changer for their industry.

In the last 18 months, the amount of speculation, discussion, and hype around AI has soared.

But will AI truly disrupt the status quo, or will it just incrementally influence it?

In this week’s newsletter, we showcase new findings from Project Liberty Institute’s own original research of public opinion to explore this question.

// Project Liberty's new insights report

In late 2023, Project Liberty Institute conducted an international survey of 14,000 people, aged 18-75, in seven countries across five continents: Brazil, China, France, India, South Africa, the UK, and the US. Last week the Institute added to its findings on global perceptions of social media ([link removed] ) by releasing a new Insights report ([link removed] ) focused on impressions of AI.

Insight #1: Disrupting the status quo vs. accelerating the status quo

More people view AI as an accelerator of current phenomena rather than a disruptor. Many believe AI will exacerbate existing challenges like impact surveillance, online crime, and misinformation more than it will positively transform jobs or health.

Insight #2: Impressions of AI are different in emerging economies

There are divergent impressions of AI’s impact. In the US, UK, and France—all advanced, Western economies—public attitudes toward AI’s social impact are mixed, with many skeptical of the latest AI innovations. However, populations in emerging economies like Brazil and India had more favorable assessments of AI’s impact on society. This pattern mirrored what Project Liberty found in its previous research on global attitudes toward social media: Global majority populations are more favorable ([link removed] ) toward technological innovation than populations in advanced, Western economies.

Insight #3: Impressions of AI and AI regulation differ by age

- In advanced economies, those under age 25 are substantially more likely than those 55 and above to say that AI has had a positive impact on society.
- In the US, UK, and France, younger adults are less likely than their older counterparts to describe AI regulation as important, while in other parts of the world, views of AI vary less consistently and intensely by age.

// AI: the disruptor

Few things have been hyped in recent memory as much as the disruptive potential for AI.

- Jobs: A 2023 report by McKinsey ([link removed] ) predicted that 30% of working hours could be automated by 2030. A report by PwC ([link removed] ) found that in AI-exposed occupations, there’s a 25% greater chance that people will need to learn new skills, and globally, jobs that require AI skills are growing 3.5x faster than all jobs.
- Leisure: Christopher Pissarides, a Nobel-prize-winning economist, predicted that AI could lead to major increases in leisure time ([link removed] ) . “We could move to a four-day week easily,” he predicted.
- Health: The New York Times published an article last year titled “Medicine, Technology and the End of Cancer ([link removed] ) ” on how AI can revolutionize cancer care. Accenture estimated that 70% of healthcare worker’s tasks ([link removed] ) could be reinvented by technologies like AI.
- Extinction-level threat: The US State Department released a report ([link removed] ) earlier this year stating that the most advanced AI systems could “pose an extinction-level threat to the human species.”

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Many believe AI will exacerbate existing challenges like impact surveillance, online crime, and misinformation more than it will positively transform jobs or health.

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// AI: the accelerant

Yet it’s possible that AI’s near-term impact will be more as an accelerant of existing dynamics than as a disruptor and creator of new ones.

- Exacerbate misinformation: Misinformation has existed for centuries, but AI is making it worse. A new paper released last week by researchers at Google, which has tracked misinformation trends since 1995, found that AI led to a surge in image-related misinformation in 2023 ([link removed] ) . Nearly 80% of fact-checked misinformation claims involve media such as images and video. OpenAI found ([link removed] ) that actors who are using AI to generate disinformation are not using it in the sophisticated ways that could be most harmful.
- Increase surveillance: AI is creating new ways to conduct surveillance and racial profiling ([link removed] ) —practices that have been around for years—but are being scaled and used in new ways by technology.
- Improve productivity: Studies have shown that AI can increase the productivity of call center customer support agents ([link removed] ) , software developers ([link removed] ) , and mid-level professionals ([link removed] ) , but gains can be marginal. Technology has long been promised to unlock new productivity levels, but the labor productivity rate since the 1970s—a time of major leaps in computing and technology—is far less than the productivity rate from 1920-1970 ([link removed] ) . Today, even with advances in AI, labor productivity and economic growth face the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging workforce, and rising student debt (to name a few).

// The price of hype

All the hype around AI might have its own costs.

- As the research from Project Liberty suggests, predictions around AI's disruptive potential could breed skepticism about whether the technology will deliver on its transformative potential. Jeb Bell, Head of Research and Strategic Insights at Project Liberty Institute, said that the new report “highlights the fact that the media and others may be missing the fuller picture of how people view AI technology.”
- The focus on transformational changes and major disruptions could distract regulators, policymakers, technologists, and the public from identifying the incremental ways that AI is posing everyday risks—from surveillance to misinformation to new ways that biases are encoded into algorithms ([link removed] ) .

// Disruption can look like incremental changes

It’s tempting to equate disruption with speed and be transfixed by the potential for a technology to change things overnight. But what is deemed disruptive by historians often looks like a series of incremental changes in the present.

Disruptive technology can move slowly. For example, the automated telephone switching system, which was invented in 1892, replaced human operators. But it took over 30 years for Bell Systems to install its first fully automated office, and even into the mid-20th century, there were 350,000 telephone operators in the US ([link removed] ) . It wasn’t until nine decades after the invention of the automated switching system that the occupation of telephone operator largely disappeared in the 1980s.

It’s less useful to debate whether AI represents a disruptive, revolutionary change or simply an incremental one. More important is to recognize the full range of the technology’s multifaceted impact, understand the perceptions of AI across age and geography, and then build proactive policies and technologies.

Project Liberty news

// A People’s Bid for TikTok

Last week, Frank McCourt sat down with The Texas Tribune CEO Sonal Shah, to discuss A People’s Bid for TikTok and his pursuit of a better internet. Check out the interview here ([link removed] ) .

// Global Launch of Responsible Technology report

June 19th at 11am ET

Project Liberty Institute and Aspen Digital are hosting a global virtual launch of the "Responsible Technology" report. The report synthesizes insights from over 150 leaders across governments, businesses, civil society, academia, and international organizations spanning five continents. Register here ([link removed] ) .

Other notable headlines

// 🙏 An article in The Walrus ([link removed] ) argued that AI is a false god and the real threat with super intelligence is falling prey to the hype.

// 📱 For ninth graders without phones, they’re not in the group chat, but they’re not social pariahs either, according to an article in The Cut ([link removed] ) .

// 🤖 An article by Tristan Harris in The Economist ([link removed] ) suggested that AI worsens the ills caused by social media, and the remedy is a change in incentives.

// 💵 The biggest brands and agencies are fueling the spread of misinformation through programmatic advertising, according to an article in WIRED ([link removed] ) .

// 🔎 Google Zero is here. Search has been an invisible platform that shaped the entire web, and now it’s changing, according to an article in The Verge ([link removed] ) .

// 🗳 A podcast by WIRED ([link removed] ) explored how 2024 is the AI election year. Deepfakes and robocalls are being used to manipulate voters across the world.

// 🖥 A survey found that Black Americans disproportionately encounter lies online, according to an article in The Guardian ([link removed] ) .

// 🔓 An article in The New York Times ([link removed] ) reported how AI companies are divided over whether AI should be freely available to anyone for modifying and copying, or kept close for safekeeping.

// 🤔 Is the AI revolution already losing steam? An article in The Wall Street Journal ([link removed] ) explored how the pace of innovation is slowing, AI's usefulness is limited, and the cost of running it remains exorbitant.

Partner news & opportunities

// Recording on how technology can strengthen democratic systems

On May 27th, the Paris School of International Affairs ([link removed] ) , RadicalXChange ([link removed] ) , and Bertelsmann Stiftung ([link removed] ) came together to explore the transformative potential of technology in strengthening democratic systems, with Taiwan as a key example. Watch the recording here ([link removed] ) .

// New study: teen and young adult perspectives on generative AI

Common Sense Media ([link removed] ) released a new study in partnership with Hopelab ([link removed] ) and the Center for Digital Thriving ([link removed] ) at Harvard Graduate School of Education examining young people's perspectives on generative AI. This study focuses on how teens and young adults interact with these technologies, highlighting both benefits and concerns. Read it here ([link removed] ) .

// Call for applications: Betaworks Ventures AI Camp

Betaworks ([link removed] ) is seeking early-stage teams developing innovative AI applications. AI Camp offers a 13-week in-residence program to help startups with product development, platform strategy, data science, branding, and fundraising. Participants receive a $250k investment on an uncapped SAFE note with a 25% discount, plus potential additional funding. Learn more here ([link removed] ) .

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