Hi james,
Despite the best efforts of Donald Trump and his countless enablers in the Republican Party and right-wing media machine, the former president appears to be sailing towards a conviction in his hush money case. No amount of ranting on Truth Social or breathless Jesse Watters segments can erase the mountains of evidence and witness testimony arrayed against the MAGA kingpin. So, a conviction seems all but certain. But then what?
On one hand, Judge Juan Merchan has extended excessive leniency towards Trump thus far. Were he anyone else, Trump would have been tossed behind bars several gag order violations ago. Instead, Merchan has demonstrated a profound hesitancy to punish him because of the charged political atmosphere around the case. He knows that any punitive action taken against the former president will be interpreted by a sizable segment of the country as rank partisan maneuvering — and that selfsame segment has already demonstrated a fondness for political violence. It’s possible that in the case of a conviction, Merchan will cut Trump tremendous slack in the sentencing.
On the other hand, felony convictions exist in a whole other weight class from gag order violations. If a jury of his peers does find Trump guilty, Merchan might be compelled to tilt in the other direction. Punishing too harshly over the gag order would have enraged Republicans, but letting Trump off lightly with house arrest or something similarly tame would destroy the justice system’s credibility in the eyes of every Democrat for good.
If Merchan does decide to uphold the law and incarcerate Trump, there remains the issue of sentence length. Again, the singular nature of the defendant (in this scenario convict) means we’re unlikely to see the law applied as it would be to anyone else. Any other American convicted of thirty-four counts of felony falsification of business records — a crime that carries a maximum penalty of four years per count — would spend the rest of their life in prison. Frankly, I’d be satisfied with even a few years.
If the judge instead shirks his duty and caves to the political pressure by letting a convicted Trump off with a slap on the wrist, he’ll be giving a flashing green light to similar criminals all across the country. Either the law applies to all of us equally, or it applies to none of us.
Reject any Republican birth control restrictions!
Regardless of how Merchan proceeds, the rest of us already have our marching orders. Even if Trump is convicted and locked up, it does nothing to solve the political problem. Sure, a lot of voters will refuse to pull the lever for him if he becomes a felon, but the MAGA base isn’t going anywhere. If anything, a conviction will make them more worked up to vote.
Ultimately, this story ends at the ballot box. To kill this nascent fascist movement on the vine, we’ll have to completely discredit Trumpism as an electoral project. We do that by showing up en masse and reelecting Joe Biden. Democracy can win.
Stay focused, stay energized.
Brian
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