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Daily News Brief

January 5, 2024

Top of the Agenda

North Korea Fires Artillery Shells Into Waters Near South Korea

More than two hundred shells landed in (Reuters) disputed waters near two remote South Korean islands, where residents took cover in bomb shelters, South Korean officials said. Seoul conducted live-fire exercises in nearby waters in response, while a South Korean military spokesperson demanded that North Korea “immediately cease” actions (WaPo) that are increasing tensions. Pyongyang later said the drills were its response to recent military actions by Seoul.

 

Today’s artillery volley and South Korean response prompted China to call for restraint and for both sides to resume dialogue. South Korea and the United States have increased their military cooperation in recent months in response to North Korea’s continued vows to build up its weapons capability, and at a major party meeting last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said Pyongyang was fundamentally changing its military policy toward the South.

Analysis

“It is not unusual for North Korea to fire artillery into the West Sea during its winter exercises,” Ewha University’s Leif-Eric Easley tells reporters. “What’s different this year is the two Koreas have recently backed away from a military confidence-building agreement, and Kim Jong Un has publicly disavowed reconciliation and unification with the South.”


“The United States should start by prioritizing risk reduction over denuclearization as a more practical means to averting nuclear war—the United States and its allies’ single most important security objective on the peninsula. It is important to remember that North Korea also has a fundamental interest in avoiding unwanted nuclear war,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Jamie Kwong and Ankit Panda write for Foreign Affairs.

 

Middle East and North Africa

Israel’s Defense Minister Lays Out Vision for Gaza’s Postwar Rule

In a document released yesterday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that a Palestinian group other than Hamas should rule over civilian matters (FT) in the Gaza Strip following the end of the current war, while Israel, Egypt, and a multinational force should maintain a role in the enclave. Separately, U.S. officials have suggested the Palestinian Authority should play a leading role in Gaza after the war.


U.S./Iraq/Yemen: Iraq’s government is creating a committee (Reuters) to prepare for ending the presence of a U.S.-led international military coalition in the country, the prime minister’s office said in a statement today. Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Defense said it killed a leader of an Iran-backed militia in Iraq in retaliation for recent attacks on U.S. personnel. The United States warned Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to stop attacking ships in the Red Sea; after the warning yesterday, Houthis launched (AP) an armed unmanned ship that exploded near U.S. and commercial ships in the waterway.

 

Pacific Rim

White House: Russia Used Missiles From North Korea to Strike Ukraine

White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that U.S. intelligence shows Russia has used (WaPo) short-range ballistic missiles sourced from North Korea to strike Ukraine, and that Washington plans to raise the issue at the UN Security Council. These include launches both on December 30 and on Tuesday, Kirby said. 


This In Brief by CFR expert Scott A. Snyder unpacks the perils of a renewed North Korea-Russia partnership. 

 

South and Central Asia

Bangladesh to Hold Vote That Could Deliver PM Fifth Term in Power

Bangladesh’s main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist party is boycotting (FT) Sunday’s vote and says that police have arrested as many as twenty thousand members and supporters in recent months. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the ruling Awami League party is seeking her fifth term in power. The Bangladesh Nationalist party claims the Awami League is manipulating the vote to evade any serious challengers.

 

For the Asia Unbound blog, David Hoogstra and Geoffrey Macdonald look at public opinion in Bangladesh.


Pakistan: The Senate passed a nonbinding resolution (Times of India) today seeking a delay to general elections currently scheduled for February 8. Lawmakers cited concerns about cold weather and security following a recent string of militant attacks. The vote was originally due to be held in November 2023. 

View the 2024 Preventive Priorities Survey

CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey finds that U.S. domestic terrorism and political violence, Middle East conflict, and migration to the U.S. border are experts’ top global concerns for 2024.

Read the report
View the 2024 Preventive Priorities Survey
 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Senegal’s Top Court Rejects Appeal of Opposition Presidential Hopeful

Opposition figure Ousmane Sonko was hoping to run in next month’s presidential election but received a charge (Reuters) with a libel accusation that he said is politically motivated. The appeal went to Senegal’s Supreme Court, which ruled against him today.

 

South Africa: The country published a new national plan (Bloomberg) for its energy sector through 2050, which envisions the addition of more than one hundred gigawatts of new power from a variety of sources including coal, nuclear, solar, and wind. More than one thousand megawatts of new power could come from coal by 2030, the blueprint said.


This In Brief by CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo explores whether South Africa’s coal dependency could sink the country’s green ambitions. 

 

Europe

Ukrainian Battle Position Adds to Evidence That Russia Took Frontline Town Marinka

Ukraine’s defense ministry said yesterday that its forces were fighting “in the vicinities” of a village behind the frontline town of Marinka, which Russia recently said it seized. Open source maps also suggest Russia controls the town. The Russian advance would be one of its most significant territorial gains since the battle of Bakhmut last May, the New York Times reported. 

 

Poland: Farmers returned to positions (Politico) blockading the Poland-Ukraine border yesterday, saying the Polish government did not meet their demands for financial support. Polish truckers are also blocking the border, protesting competition from Ukraine.

 

Americas

Kidnappers of Thirty-Two Migrants in Mexico Planned to Extort Them, President Says

The armed men who kidnapped the migrants near the northern Mexican city of Reynosa over the weekend aimed to (Reuters) demand money from them and their families, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said. Human rights activists have warned in recent months about a growing kidnapping crisis in Reynosa. 


Canada: Using fifty years of data, a new study by researchers at Griffith University in Australia showed that commercial practices in two major logging regions have left irreversible damage (NYT) to Canada’s forests, removing more than thirty-five million acres. The government requires reforestation in many cases, though the new trees are often of lower quality that still allows for fires and forest degradation.

 

United States

Report: Trump Firms Took $7.8 Million From Foreign Governments, Officials During Presidency

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee who issued the report said (WaPo) that former President Donald Trump broke a rule requiring congressional permission in order for federal officials to receive money or gifts from foreign governments. The countries included China, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. While Trump did not immediately comment (BBC), a spokesperson for the Trump Organization said it could not stop people from booking at its properties through third parties.

Friday Editor’s Pick

Rest of World chronicles how Indian journalists have moved away from traditional media outlets amid the government’s crackdown on press freedom, turning instead to YouTube to deliver the news.

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