[ A new U.N. report sets the stage for high-stakes negotiations at
COP28 this month. This is the first-ever “global stocktake” since
the Paris Agreement was ratified in 2016. When countries signed on to
the international treaty... ]
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THE WORLD IS CAREENING TOWARD 3 DEGREES OF WARMING, UN SAYS AHEAD OF
CLIMATE CONFERENCE  
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Naveena Sadasivam
November 21, 2023
Grist [[link removed]]

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_ A new U.N. report sets the stage for high-stakes negotiations at
COP28 this month. This is the first-ever “global stocktake” since
the Paris Agreement was ratified in 2016. When countries signed on to
the international treaty... _

Boris Roessler/picture alliance // Grist,

 

The landmark Paris climate agreement called for nations to keep global
temperature increase to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, with an
aspiration of limiting it to 1.5 degrees C above the preindustrial
average. The benchmarks are supposed to stave off some of the worst
effects of climate change. But even if countries fulfill their
decarbonization pledges in the coming decades, their emissions
trajectories put those targets well out of reach, according to a new
report
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United Nations Environment Programme. 

If countries fully implemented their plans to cut carbon emissions as
currently promised under the Paris Agreement framework, the planet
will still warm 2.9 degrees Celsius, or 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Assuming a world in which countries also meet their current goals to
zero out net carbon emissions in the coming decades, temperatures will
still increase about 2.5 degrees C, or 4.5 degrees F, according to the
analysis. 

“Even in the most optimistic scenario considered in this report, the
chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is only 14
percent, and the various scenarios leave open a large possibility that
global warming exceeds 2 degrees Celsius or even 3 degrees Celsius,”
the report noted. 

The analysis found that global emissions need to drop by more than a
quarter to keep warming to 2 degrees C in the next seven years. To
meet the more ambitious 1.5-degree target, emissions will need to fall
by more than 40 percent by 2030. Those cuts should largely come from
developed countries and high-income households, which are responsible
for the bulk of emissions, the report noted. About 10 percent of
individuals contribute to nearly half of all emissions globally.

The emissions gap report is an annual assessment conducted by the
United Nations Environment Programme and published in the lead-up to
the United Nations climate conference, or COP, which is scheduled to
begin at the end of this month in Dubai. It is the most robust
analysis of where greenhouse gas emissions are headed under current
policies — and where they need to be headed to limit warming.
Researchers assess the pledges made by countries under the Paris
Agreement and estimate the emissions reductions that are likely if
they are fulfilled.

The report’s findings are particularly significant this year because
countries are set to conduct the first-ever “global stocktake”
since the Paris Agreement was ratified in 2016. When countries signed
on to the international treaty, they agreed to a number of goals,
including reducing carbon emissions to limit warming and providing
financial assistance to developing countries. The stocktake is an
inventory of how much progress countries have made toward these goals.

The emissions assessment emphasizes that the world is off track in its
quest to accomplish the aims of that agreement. It supports a number
of recent
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that the 1.5-degree goal is increasingly out of reach. 

“It does underscore the need for a robust response to the global
stocktake,” said Taryn Fransen, a climate policy expert at the
nonprofit World Resources Institute and a lead author of the report.
“The question is, politically, what do countries do about this at
COP28?”

Fransen said she hoped the findings in the report would drive
countries to agree to more ambitious emissions reductions at the
climate conference later this month. A strong outcome might include
language agreeing to transition away from the use of fossil fuels,
dramatically increase the use of renewable energy, double energy
efficiency, and boost finance to developing nations experiencing the
worst effects of climate change, she added.

The report does highlight a few bright spots in the climate landscape.
For one, pledges by countries have become more ambitious since the
Paris Agreement was signed. Current pledges include 10 percent more
reductions in emissions compared to the initial pledges submitted.
Countries are also increasingly implementing the policies that they
promised to. In recent years, the United States has passed legislation
that is expected to cut its emissions by at least a third
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and the European Union has passed a slew of measures that could help
it meet its 2030 goal ahead of schedule
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“Countries are getting closer to actually achieving the goals they
set out,” said Fransen. “That’s the good news. The bad news is
those goals are not sufficient. They’re just not ambitious enough to
limit warming to 1.5 degrees.”

Given the low likelihood that warming will be contained to 1.5
degrees, the report emphasized the need for techniques to remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Methods such as afforestation and
storing carbon dioxide in geological formations, soil, and marine and
coastal ecosystems are increasingly becoming crucial, the report
argues.

“The expanded use of carbon dioxide removal is unavoidable if the
Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is to remain within
reach,” the report said.

_[NAVEENA SADASIVAM is Senior Staff Writer at Grist.]_

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* UN Climate Talks
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* Paris Agreement
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* Global warming
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* Climate Change
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* Climate Crisis
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