Daily News Brief

August 11, 2023

Top of the Agenda

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) ordered the activation (AFP) of a “standby force” during an emergency meeting yesterday that weighed responses to the recent coup in Niger. The order comes amid rising fears over the danger to deposed President Mohamed Bazoum; the Associated Press reported that the junta have threatened to kill Bazoum if neighboring countries attempt any military intervention. The United States, African Union, and European Union have all made public appeals for Bazoum’s safety.

While ECOWAS has threatened to intervene militarily if Niger’s junta does not restore Bazoum to power, a standby force could take weeks or longer to assemble (Reuters), and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said the bloc is prioritizing a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Analysis

“A direct consequence of the potential armed conflict [from a military intervention] would be the inevitable spillover of refugees and the mass influx of displaced persons into Nigeria and other neighboring countries,” the Royal United Services Institute’s Folahanmi Aina writes for Foreign Policy. “ECOWAS should tread with caution.”

“Despite dire humanitarian and economic consequences, the junta is unlikely to budge under the [already-imposed] sanctions for a considerable time, especially if China, Russia, Turkey, and French uranium mining companies continue to do business,” the Brookings Institution’s Vanda Felbab-Brown writes.

In this In Brief, CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo discusses how the coup could threaten the entire Sahel region.

Pacific Rim

South Africa’s trade minister said the deals are meant to boost Chinese investment (Bloomberg) in South African manufacturing. They come ahead of a planned state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month.

Malaysia: About ten million people are expected to vote (Nikkei) in elections for state legislatures tomorrow. The elections are seen as a test for a unity government that formed in 2022 after years of political turmoil.

South and Central Asia

Saudi firms are in talks to buy portions of a copper mine and set up an oil refinery in Pakistan, which remains embroiled in an economic crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports. The deals shift Gulf nations’ economic engagement strategy with Pakistan from loans to acquisitions.

On The President’s Inbox podcast, Sadanand Dhume discusses Pakistan’s many crises.

Bangladesh: Cases of dengue fever have risen sharply (AP) during August, with more than one hundred people dying from the disease in the first ten days of the month. That is over a third the number of deaths in the entirety of 2022. People infected with the disease are overwhelming hospitals across the country.

Middle East and North Africa

The transfer of the Americans from Evin Prison is the first step (Al-Monitor) in a deal that reportedly includes a prisoner swap and Iran gaining access to some $6 billion in U.S. sanctioned bank funds for humanitarian purposes.

Levant/North Africa: More than half of young Arabs in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories—and 48 percent of those in North Africa—want to move abroad (FT) to find work, a survey by global communications agency BCW found. Some of their top destinations include Canada, followed by the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Sub-Saharan Africa

President Cyril Ramaphosa said he pardoned former President Jacob Zuma (FT) and almost ten thousand others in an effort to reduce prison overcrowding. Zuma had been given a fifteen-month sentence in 2021 for blocking a probe into corruption allegations; he was later released on medical grounds but had returned to prison today.

Europe

At least 2,063 migrants have gone missing or been found dead (Le Monde) in the Mediterranean Sea so far in 2023, according to the International Organization for Migration. That is more than the annual total for each of the past four years. More than twenty-seven thousand people have gone missing or been found dead since 2014.

Russia: Arkady Volozh, a co-founder of Russia’s largest technology company, became the second sanctioned Russian businessman (NYT) to unequivocally condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling it “barbaric.”

Americas

Sunday’s vote will determine which candidate (Reuters) leads Argentina’s center-right opposition in the October presidential election. The center-left government coalition has already decided on its candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa.

Ecuador: Authorities arrested six Colombian suspects (NYT) in connection with Wednesday’s assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, Ecuador’s interior minister said.

On The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR expert Will Freeman discusses violence in Ecuador in the context of Latin America’s crime surge.

United States

President Joe Biden is asking Congress for $13 billion in emergency defense aid (AP) and $8 billion in humanitarian relief for Ukraine before the end of the year. Congress approved the last such supplemental spending request on Ukraine, though some lawmakers since then have voiced skepticism on approving new war funds.

CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow look at U.S. aid to Ukraine in six charts.

Friday Editor’s Pick

Reuters investigates the rise of politically violent incidents in the United States since the January 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.

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