Daily News Brief

May 12, 2023

Top of the Agenda

Muharrem İnce, leader of the center-left Homeland Party, pulled out of the race (AP) yesterday in a move that could boost the chances of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival, opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Polls ahead of Sunday’s presidential vote predict the most challenging race of Erdoğan’s twenty-year rule, but neither candidate is expected to win more than 50 percent of votes, the threshold for avoiding a second round of voting.

Kılıçdaroğlu has focused his campaign (FT) on inflation and other economic issues, while Erdoğan has sought to project Turkish influence on the world stage. Kılıçdaroğlu has also accused Russia of spreading “deepfake content” in Erdoğan’s favor. Moscow denied the claim (AFP).

Analysis

“The fact is that tumultuous days await Turkey if Erdogan were to be defeated after a twenty-year reign,” CFR’s Henri J. Barkey writes in the National Interest. “The transition will be challenging as the new government will be confronting three immediate problems: the economy, the status of state institutions, and governing amidst disarray at all levels of society and politics.” 

“Whether Erdogan wins or loses, Ankara is unlikely to untangle itself from Moscow and turn back to the West,” Bard University’s Elmira Bayrasli writes in CNN. “Moscow has been supplying cash-strapped Turkey with natural gas, on credit. Especially if Erdogan loses, you can bet that Putin will press the new government to not only pay up, but to continue to be one of the few countries that engages with him.”

Pacific Rim

The Pheu Thai party said that it would seek (Guardian) to oust the country’s military generals, end the military draft, and raise the minimum wage if it secures a victory in Sunday’s general election.

CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick looks at what’s at stake in Thailand’s elections.

China/U.S.: In Vienna, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with (FT) top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi for more than eight hours over two days of talks in an effort to help stabilize bilateral relations.

South and Central Asia

The Islamabad High Court ruled that former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent arrest in a corruption case was unlawful (Dawn, AFP) and granted him two-week bail. 

Myanmar: A new report by human rights group Myanmar Witness found that forces controlled by the country’s ruling military junta had been present in areas that were also the site of beheadings (WaPo) and other apparent atrocities.

Middle East and North Africa

Despite efforts to broker a cease-fire, Palestinian militants in Gaza shot rockets toward Israel (AP) and Israel said it hit four military posts of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group today. Thirty-one Palestinians and one Israeli man have been reported dead since fighting broke out earlier this week.

Libya: International Criminal Court (ICC) judges have issued four new arrest warrants (AP) in their probe of alleged war crimes in Libya in 2011, the court’s prosecutor said.

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa summoned the U.S. ambassador to the country (News24) after he told local media outlets that Pretoria allowed Russia-bound ammunition (CNN) to be loaded onto a ship in December. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office said there was no evidence to support the claim.

Sudan: As part of peace talks brokered by the United States and Saudi Arabia, Sudan’s warring military factions agreed to protect civilians (FT) and allow humanitarian aid into the country, but did not say they would stop fighting.

Europe

The government allowed citizens to turn in unregistered weapons (WaPo) without a penalty as part of a measure to reduce the number of guns in the country following two mass killings last week. Almost six thousand weapons were turned in during the first three days of the initiative, Serbia’s interior ministry said.

Americas

More than 115,600 children in Haiti are at risk of severe wasting from malnutrition (Reuters) this year, the UN Children's Fund said. The ongoing crisis in Haiti has worsened food insecurity and hampered humanitarian access in the country.

This Backgrounder looks at Haiti’s troubled path to development.

Chile/Argentina: Chile’s government asked for an official explanation (Clarín) from Argentina for water engineering projects that have dried up a binational river.

United States

The American Civil Liberties Union filed a federal lawsuit (LA Times) against the implementation of a new policy that restricts asylum access at U.S. borders, comparing it to a policy advanced by the Donald Trump administration that was ultimately blocked in court.

This Backgrounder looks at how the U.S. asylum process works.

Friday Editor’s Pick

Reuters details the rapid ascendancy of Los Chapitos, the four sons of Mexican drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, and their impact on the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

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