[A united opposition group led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu could
finally end the Turkish president’s decades of power ]
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ERDOĞAN FACES REAL CHANCE OF LOSING AS TURKEY GETS READY TO VOTE
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Jon Henley
May 10, 2023
The Guardian
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_ A united opposition group led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu could
finally end the Turkish president’s decades of power _
Turkish voters are faced with a momentous choice which will affect
their country's political and economic future, Adem Altan/AFP
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
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Justice and Development party (AKP) face their greatest political
challenge yet in elections on Sunday, with polls suggesting a united
opposition could end his two decades in power.
Amid an economic crisis, and months after earthquakes killed more
than 50,000 people
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displaced millions more, the parliamentary and presidential votes will
decide who leads the country of nearly 85 million and where it heads
next.
Erdoğan has championed religious and conservative social values at
home, presiding over an increasingly authoritarian regime that is more
and more intolerant of criticism. Abroad, he has asserted Turkey’s
influence in the region and loosened its ties with the west.
His main challenger is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
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the secularist Republican People’s party (CHP), the unity candidate
of the six-party Nation Alliance, who has pledged to reverse many of
Erdoğan’s policies, including his all-powerful executive
presidency.
How do the elections work?
In the presidential election, held every five years, any candidate who
wins more than 50% of votes in the first round is elected president.
If no one secures a majority, the election goes to a runoff – due on
28 May – between the two leading candidates.
In the parliamentary elections, held concurrently, the number of seats
a party wins in Turkey’s 600-member parliament is directly
proportional to the number of votes it receives, providing it gets –
alone or as part of an alliance – at least 7% of the national vote.
Polling stations will open to Turkey’s 61 million voters at 8am
local time on Sunday 14 May and close at 5pm, with results expected in
the evening. An estimated 3 million voters resident abroad will have
cast their ballots in advance.
Who are the presidential candidates and what do they stand for?
The country’s most powerful leader since Atatürk, who founded
modern Turkey a century ago, ERDOĞAN, 69, has steered Turkey away
from secularism and in 2018 abolished its parliamentary system,
centralising power in the presidency.
From his 1,000-room palace outside Ankara, he in effect dictates
government policy and has, critics say, eroded democracy, stifling
dissent and bringing media and judges under his sway. His supporters
say he has saved the country from serious security threats such as a
2016 coup attempt.
Economists also blame Erdoğan for the country’s economic crisis,
saying his insistence on low interest rates has sent inflation soaring
– to 85% last year – and caused the Turkish lira to lose 80% of
its value against the dollar in five years.
KEMAL KILIÇDAROĞLU, a 74-year-old retired civil servant, has been
Turkey’s main opposition leader for more than a decade, leading his
CHP party to major victories in a string of big-city municipalities
including Istanbul, Ankara and İzmir.
The candidate of the Nation Alliance or Table of Six has been
criticised as lacking charisma and for blocking politicians from his
own party – such as the high-profile mayors of Istanbul and Ankara
– who may have stood a better chance of victory.
The alliance has prioritised justice, corruption and education,
pledging to restore central bank independence, cut inflation,
dismantle the executive presidency, restore parliament’s powers,
return Syrian refugees, and improve relations with the west.
Perhaps critically, Kılıçdaroğlu has the support of the main
pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP), which finished third in
2018 elections and faces a possible court-ordered closure over alleged
links between some members and outlawed armed Kurdish militants. About
15% of Turkey’s voters are Kurdish.
MUHARREM İNCE of the rightwing, nationalist Homeland party has
ignored criticism that by running he is splitting the anti-Erdoğan
vote, and the rightwing SINAN OĞAN, a former Nationalist Movement
party (MHP) member, is running as an independent.
What’s on voters’ minds?
The election campaign has been dominated by the state of Turkey’s
economy and the cost of living crisis, as well as the massive
damage caused by the earthquakes
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the question of which president and party alliance is best placed to
improve matters.
The opposition has also attacked alleged government mismanagement of
the rescue operation and fallout from the quakes, and accused it of
failing to enforce building codes. The hard-hit, traditionally
pro-Erdoğan east could prove crucial.
Why does it matter beyond Turkey?
Under Erdoğan, Turkey has flexed is military muscle in the Middle
East and beyond, launching incursions into Syria, waging an offensive
against Kurdish militants inside Iraq and sending military support to
Libya and Azerbaijan.
It has also clashed diplomatically with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the
United Arab Emirates and Israel, rowed with Greece and Cyprus over
maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean, and been subjected
to US arms industry sanctions after buying Russian air defences.
Erdoğan’s closeness to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has
led critics to question Turkey’s commitment to its fellow Nato
members – which Ankara’s recent reluctance to endorse Sweden and
Finland’s membership applications has only reinforced.
Turkey also, however, brokered a deal for Ukrainian wheat exports,
underlining its potential role in ending the war. For the EU, defeat
for Erdoğan would be strategically welcome but politically tricky,
since it might relaunch Turkey’s accession bid.
What about the parliamentary elections?
Voters have a choice between 32 parties mostly organised into multiple
alliances, at present headed by the People’s Alliance made up of the
ruling AKP, the MHP, the Great Unity party (BBP) and New Welfare party
(YRP).
The six parties making up the opposition Nation Alliance are the
Republican People’s party (CHP), Good party (İYİ), Felicity party
(SP), Future party (GP), Democrat party (DP) and Democracy and
Progress party (DEVA).
The Green Left party (YSP, including Kurdish HDP candidates) and
Workers’ party of Turkey (TİP) form the Labour and Freedom
Alliance, while three leftwing parties are in the Union of Socialist
Forces and two rightwing parties in Ancestral Alliance.
Who’s going to win, and what happens next?
In the presidential election, the most recent polling has shown
Kılıçdaroğlu marginally ahead of Erdoğan by about two points but
unlikely to obtain an absolute majority of votes, meaning a runoff is
expected in a fortnight’s time.
Some commentators have warned that if Erdoğan loses by a small margin
he may refuse to stand down, as happened when the AKP lost control of
Ankara and Istanbul in municipal elections that it contested, even
forcing a re-run in the latter.
In the parliamentary poll, the president’s AKP is on course to
emerge as the largest single party, but the opposition Nation Alliance
is projected to be the largest political bloc. Many analysts warn,
however, that polling in Turkey is not always exact.
_Jon Henley is the Guardian's Europe correspondent, based in Paris_
* Turkey
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* elections
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* Erdogan Government
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* grassroots opposition
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